Is there anything better than October baseball?
Playoff games are plenty exciting on their own, but if you want to add a little juice to the games, our MLB betting experts have you covered. After looking over today's MLB odds, our experts have zeroed in on some MLB picks and made predictions for tonight's games.
So, continue reading as today's MLB best bets are below.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:08 p.m. | |
| 6:08 p.m. | |
| 6:08 p.m. | |
  | 9:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nick Galaida's Dodgers vs Phillies Best Bet: Fade Snell
By Nick Galaida
Blake Snell is never a guarantee to make it through six innings, but even less so in a playoff game. The NLDS this season has a scheduling quirk as well, with the teams having a day off before Game 1, before Game 2, and before Game 3 — meaning that these bullpens are fresh.
With the Dodgers having a chance to take a 2-0 series lead back home for Wednesday's Game 3, Snell would likely need to be near perfect to have a chance to get through six innings.
Pick: Blake Snell Under 16.5 Outs (+104)
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Kyle Murray's Dodgers vs Phillies Best Bet: Trust Luzardo's Command
By Kyle Murray
I sometimes worry about walks props in the postseason because you never know how players will react in these situations. However, this pick projects well, as Jesus Luzardo has a 7.5% walk rate this season and will face a Dodgers team that has a projected lineup featuring just a 6.8% walk rate against left-handed pitchers.
Pick: Jesus Luzardo Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-132)
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Sean Zerillo's Dodgers vs Phillies Best Bet: Over Showing Value
By Sean Zerillo
I show an edge on the Over in this matchup as I set the total at 8.24 runs, after factoring in the weather and umpire. I'd bet Over 7.5 up to 8 (+100).
Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia rates seventh for run scoring (+2%) over the past three seasons, but should see a slight offensive boost on Monday, with seven mph winds blowing straight out.
Moreover, plate umpire Adrian Johnson is one of the more hitter-friendly umpires in my model; his games have a 284-231-32 record (55.1%) to the Over since 2005, generating a 6.7% ROI, and clearing the listed total by an average margin of 0.8 runs per game.
By dollars won (for a consistent $100 bettor), Johnson is the most profitable over umpire in the Bet Labs database.
The Phillies have a significantly worse defensive lineup against left-handed pitchers compared to right-handed pitchers; their lefty platoon lineup costs them about two-tenths of a run per game in my model. Weston Wilson, Otto Kemp, and Nick Castellanos form a dreadful defensive outfield.
Conversely, their righty platoon lineup can save them nearly a quarter of a run over a full game; Brandon Marsh, Harrison Bader, and Max Kepler can form a well-above-average, if not elite, defensive outfield.
Moreover, they are trading defense for offense with the swap – the Phillies posted an identical wRC+ against lefties (121 wRC+, 5th) as they did against righties (2nd) in September.
Furthermore, the Dodgers are in their superior offensive split (118 wRC+ vs. lefties, 111 vs. righties in September) and their lineup is seemingly peaking in October.
Ultimately, I do prefer the Dodgers' offense; they chase significantly less often (29.5%, 3rd vs. 33.5%, 28th) and don't strike out as much (9th vs. 17th in the second half) as the Phillies, but also hit for more power (2nd vs. 8th in ISO).
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)
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Kyle Murray's Cubs vs Brewers Best Bet: How Long Will Imanaga Pitch?
By Kyle Murray
Shota Imanaga came in after an opener in his Wild Card appearance, but we haven't heard anything about the Cubs following that pattern here. Imanaga is a solid pitcher, but he saw a decline in strikeout numbers this season (20.8% K%) compared to his production last season (25.1% K%).
This is also a tough strikeout matchup, as the projected lineup for the Brewers has just a 17.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. We could also see Imanaga have a shorter leash, as he threw less than 70 pitches in his last appearance, and the Cubs could turn to a right-handed pitcher based on situations in the middle innings.
Pick: Shota Imanaga Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
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