MLB Picks Friday, April 7 | Today’s Odds, Best Bets for Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, More
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner #40 of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Twenty-eight of the 30 teams are in action in Major League Baseball on this Friday.
- Our analysts are all over them, with a host of betting picks they believe have good value.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets for the MLB slate on Friday, April 7th.
Friday's MLB slate is loaded with 14 games, which means there are plenty of betting opportunities. Our experts have looked over the numerous matchups and identified their best bets.
Two experts are aligned on the same moneyline and we also have plays on a team total and a player prop.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Friday, April 7th.
Friday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mariners vs. Guardians
Friday, April 7 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Mariners Moneyline (-105)  |
By Doug Ziefel
We are getting a rematch on the mound as Aaron Civale will again face off against Logan Gilbert. These two dueled in their first meeting, but Civale came out on top as he allowed just two hits over seven innings.
Last season, Civale finished in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit and barrel rates. A deeper look into his arsenal shows he doesn't possess the weapons to get right-handed hitters out. He will attack them with his sinker and curveball, but his sinker is likely to be clobbered — hitters had an .305 xBA against it last season. Civale will see plenty of quality righties in this matchup, many of which are good hitters due to get going.
Both pitchers are due to regress, but only the Mariners are built to capitalize.
Gilbert, with help from his defense, should be able to wiggle in and out of trouble before he hands the game over to Seattle's excellent bullpen.
On the other side, we should see some of the Mariners' bats get going. France should stay hot, but expect Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez to join the party.
Back the Mariners to take this series opener.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline |
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Mariners vs. Guardians
Friday, April 7 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Mariners Moneyline (-105) |
Seattle is off to a bit of a slow start as its offense ranks just 20th in wRC+ through the first seven games. However, Cleveland isn’t too far ahead and sits 18th. However, Cleveland has scored 38 runs to Seattle’s 29. The Mariners have been unlucky with balls in play and are struggling to get timely hits with runners in scoring position. They are due for positive regression at the plate.
On the mound will be a pitching matchup we have already seen — Logan Gilbert against Aaron Civale. Cleveland and Civale got the 2-0 win last week after Civale went seven scoreless innings. However, Gilbert was also excellent in that game as he punched out seven over six innings. His only blemish was a solo home run.
Despite the first matchup, Seattle should still have a pretty decent pitching advantage here. Gilbert is an ascending young star whose 3.20 ERA last season was 10th in the American League. Civale, on the other hand, pitched to a 4.92 ERA last year.
Civale doesn't have overpowering stuff and gave up a lot of hard contact to right-handed batters last season. His cutter and sinker both got crushed, and righties had a .317 wOBA against him. Seattle’s top bats — Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez — are all right handed. France is off to an especially hot start this season with a 193 wRC+.
Most of Cleveland’s top bats are lefties, which is the side of the plate Gilbert is much better attacking. Left-handed batters hit just .201 against Gilbert last season and had a 10.72 K/9 rate. Cleveland may have won a pitcher’s duel in round one, but I’ll take Gilbert and the Mariners to come away with round two.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to
automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel
Sportsbook.
Royals vs. Giants
Friday, April 7 4:35 p.m. ET APPLE TV |
Royals Team Total Under 3.5 (-121)  |
By Jim Turvey
The Kansas City offense draws Alex Cobb on Friday, and I don't foresee many runs in store.
For one, the Royals offense has been putrid with a 46 wRC+ through Wednesday's games, by far the worst in baseball.
The game will also be taking place in a chilly Oracle Park, where the run-scoring environment is dampened about 10%, per Ballpark Pal.
In terms of who Kansas City will be facing, Cobb is a pitcher I'm targeting early in the season. He wasn't his best in his first start, but he still allowed only one earned run and got plenty of whiffs. He'll also be backed by a Giants bullpen with arguably its two best arms (Camilo Doval and Taylor Rogers) fully rested.
This is already slightly juiced, but I would play it under three at -110 as well.
Pick: Royals Team Total Under 3.5 (-121)
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Friday, April 7 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Madison Bumgarner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-154)  |
By Nick Shlain
Taking overs in player props is more common and fun, but sometimes you have to take the under. I think I’ve found a good spot to take an under on Friday night as one of my favorite bets of the day is Madison Bumgarner to go under 4.5 strikeouts (-154 at FanDuel Sportsbook).
Bumgarner has never really been a big strikeout pitcher. His best single-season strikeout rate (27%) came back in 2016 and he’s steadily declined since. His career strikeout rate is just 22% and my projections have pegged for a 14% mark this year.
In his first start of this season, Bumgarner struck out two over four innings on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’ll be pitching at home this time, but he’s facing the Dodgers again and Los Angeles’ nucleus of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy and J.D. Martinez doesn’t strike out much against left-handed pitchers.
Martinez had the highest strikeout percentage of that group against left-handed pitching last year at just 22%. One thing bettors hate when taking an over on a player prop is when a player gets injured before the bet hits, but that can work to a bettor’s advantage when taking the under. You never want to see an athlete get hurt, but Bumgarner complained of arm fatigue during his first start of the season and that could be a factor once again.
I have Bumgarner projected for just four strikeouts here, which gives us a reason to grab the under.
Pick: Madison Bumgarner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-154)
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