Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, June 2.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Tuesday, June 2
- Blue Jays Moneyline (+102, DraftKings | Play to -105)
- Under 9 (-115, FanDuel | Play to -120)
Jays vs Braves Picks
Bryce Elder has seemingly started to come down to earth after an exceptional start to the season, and while he appears to be far from a fraud, Kevin Gausman does appear to be the superior starter.
Across Elder's last four starts, he has allowed an xBA of .283, been hard-hit 40.8% of the time and managed a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 10.2%. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 85 in that span and has allowed a zone-contact rate of 94.8%.
Gausman has pitched to a 3.22 ERA over his last four starts and allowed hard contact 32.4% of the time while owning a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 21.1%.
The Braves offense has cooled off recently following an absurd start to the season, as over the last 30 days Atlanta holds a wRC+ of 101. Toronto's plate discipline has looked more in line with what we saw last season, which has helped power a wRC+ of 106 over the last 14 days.
With Toronto's offense starting to turn the corner and its ace on the mound Tuesday, a price of +102 looks appealing to back a Blue Jays side that seems to be trending in the right direction.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (+102, DraftKings | Play to -105)
Pirates vs Astros Picks
Bubba Chandler vs. Mike Burrows definitely does not scream "pitcher's duel," but both starters seem likely to author better results moving forward, and a total of nine may be a little too high.
Burrows enters off his best start of the year, allowing just two earned runs and five hits across seven innings against the Rangers last Wednesday. He has pitched to a 4.06 xERA and been hard-hit 36% of the time this season, and it seems reasonable to think he can trend closer to the 3.94 ERA he posted last year with the Pirates moving forward.
Chandler's stuff grades out quite well (105 Stuff+, 111 Pitching+), but he's struggled to put it all together, pitching to a 4.61 xERA this season. Over his last five outings, he's posted a 4.07 xERA while striking out 23.1% of batters and allowing a respectable 35% hard-hit rate.
The Astros's depleted lineup have posted a wRC+ of 80 over the last 30 days and struck out 23.7% of the time in that span. Over the same period, Pittsburgh owns a 105 wRC+, but has benefited from a .308 BABIP while striking out 23.4% of the time.
Konnor Griffin will miss this matchup with a strained elbow, which means Jared Triolo will likely continue to fill in at shortstop. Triolo offers considerably less offensive upside, having slugged just .259 this season.
Pick: Under 9 (-115, FanDuel | Play to -120)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, June 2
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- Blue Jays Moneyline (+102, DraftKings | Play to -105)
- Under 9 (-115, FanDuel | Play to -120)
