Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, September 19.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- R.Gasser Over 5.5 Strikeouts -102, 0.51u | Bet to -115
- Orioles +114, 0.5u | Bet to +101
- Cubs -127, 1.27u | Bet to -150
- Twins/Angels Under 7.5 (-117), 0.59u | Bet to 7
Brewers @ Orioles Pick
Robert Gasser has pitched to a 2.23 ERA over his last 19.1 innings, but that’s mostly because just one of his five barrels has left the yard during that time.
His 14.5 K-BB5 is right on his season rate (14.6%), but he has only allowed 15 hard hit batted balls (25.9%), still producing an xERA (3.98) and xFIP (4.06), much higher than his 3.10 FIP.
On the season, Gasser’s 4.30 ERA meshes pretty well with indicators ranging from a 4.12 SIERA to a 4.64 dERA. His 3.67 Bot ERA is an outlier, but a 97 Pitching+ is not. He also exceeds a 40 point wOBA and xwOBA split, favoring RHBs.
The good news for Gasser is that it’s a navigable matchup, one even offering plenty of strikeout upside. Pete Alonso (114 wRC+), Coby Mayo (208) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (201) are the only three projected Orioles above a 97 wRC+ vs LHP this season. Take away Gunnar Henderson too and nobody else exceeds a 71 wRC+ or .123 ISO against southpaws.
This projected lineup also averages a 31.6 K% vs LHP and 84 wRC+ at home.
They have been hot lately though, with four batters exceeding a 140 wRC+ over the last month overall.
Glasser has struck out LHBs 25.8% of the time and RHBs 20.8% of the time. I’m projecting him to face 21 batters with only Henderson from the left-hand side, but the first 21 in the projected Baltimore order average an even higher strikeout rate against lefties (32.1%).
I also wanted to check out Gasser’s home and away strikeout splits because Milwaukee is one of the greatest strikeout enhancing parks in the league, but he’s struck out more batters on the road (22.7%) than at home (21.4%).
Camden will generally boost strikeouts around 1% for RHBs. An early forecast suggests 3% suppression, but then scheduled umpire Alex MacKay enhances strikeouts almost 8%. This is a nice spot for Gasser.
When the Orioles do make contact, they’ll be hitting into a projected defense running 24 FRV above average, one of the better units in the league.
BARTOLO ranks Milwaukee the 7th best bullpen in the league, but over the last 30 days, they merely have the 19th best estimators (4.22 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 3.89 SIERA).
Trever Rogers still has a 4.22 season ERA, but has been pitching to a 3.03 SIERA and .268 xwOBA over the last month.
His 16 K-BB% is a bit better than Gasser on the season and up to 24.5% since the All-Star break.
Rogers’ 3.23 Bot ERA is one of the best marks on the board. The only confirmed pitcher with a lower number is Tarik Skubal. His worst estimator (4.02 xFIP) is one-tenth of a run better than Gasser’s best.
The projected Milwaukee lineup averages a 102 wRC+ on the road and 105 wRC+ against LHP, but with three batters (Jackson Chourio, Andrew Vaughn and Gary Sanchez) above 125 and four batters below 80.
These Brewers have been smoking the ball lately with six projected starters above a 135 wrC+ over the last month.
The Baltimore defense projected to be behind Rogers is about average (-1 FRV).
BARTOLO ranks the O’s pen 8th, right behind the Brew Crew, but their last 30 day estimators (3.09 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA) have been a half run better and rank 5th best in the league.
I have Rogers rated about half a run better than Gasser, which Milwaukee gains back with offense and defense. With bullpens and base running about a wash, I make this game even before a small home field bump for the Orioles.
Two plays here that might seem conflicting, but don’t need to correlate.
Gasser should be able to miss bats here. I have his upside around seven with his prop (5.5 -102) a bit low.
However, I also think the Orioles are underpriced at virtually any plus money price.
Picks: R.Gasser Over 5.5 Strikeouts -102, 0.51u | Bet to -115, Orioles +114, 0.5u | Bet to +101
Cubs @ Reds Pick
Matthew Boyd’s season went off the rails when he allowed nine home runs on 11 barrels (11.2%) with just a 3.9 K-BB% in five August starts.
While that accounts for 60% of the home runs he’s allowed this season, Boyd still allowed just a 35.7 HardHit% last month.
Since the calendar has turned to September, he’s only improve to an 11 K-BB% that aligns with his season rate (11.4%), but hasn’t allowed a home run or even a single barrel with a 34.5 HardHit%.
Overall, his 4.16 ERA is just below estimators ranging from a 4.31 xFIP and dERA to a 4.68 xERA with that latter metric the only one reaching four and a half and this includes pitch modeling.
We can feel pretty good about who he is and that helps when facing a Cincinnati projected lineup with just two batters (Bleday, Trevino) below a 100 wRC+ and five batters above a .196 ISO against LHP. Yet, we also have to remember that they play in one of the most power friendly parks in the league.
The Cubs are always a greater run prevention unit than the sum of their pitcher because of their league best defense, projected for -66 FRV on Saturday.
Opposing Boyd, Nick Lodolo’s season never even got on the rails to start with. He has just four quality starts in 19 tries all year.
Lodolo’s 8.5 K-BB% is not only a career worst, but less than half his previous low, meaning that despite his 9.7% Barrels/BBE and 40.9 HardHit% remaining around his career rates, his season has been a disaster.
Unfortunately, his 5.12 ERA also aligns with more widly ranging indicators running from a 4.75 Bot ERA (92 Pitching+) to a 6.45 xERA. Those pitch modeling metrics are both bottom three on Saturday's board. Batters from either side of the plate sit between a .370 and .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
While the Cincinnati offense perks up against LHP, the Cubs are still better. Their projected nine for Saturday average a 105 wRC+ on the road, 129 wRC+ and .194 ISO v LHP and 142 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Nico Hoerner is the only batter below a 100 wRC+ in either of the latter two instances.
To make matters even more difficult, the projected defense for the Reds has accumulated -10 FRV, though that drops to three if Tyler Stephenson DHs and cedes catching duty to Jose Trevino, as BARTOLO seems to project (because having it the other way would defeat the purpose of playing both).
As rough as Boyd’s August was and as unimpressive as his season numbers remain, I still have him between three-quarters of a run and a full run better than Lodolo right now.
As good as the Cincinnati offense has been, I still have them around a composite 20 points of wRC+ behind the Cubs.
The Cub defense is massively better than the Reds and they even project to enjoy an 8 BRR (Base Running Runs) edge here.
I didn’t include bullpen analysis yet because both have been terrible with bottom three estimators over the last 30 days and BARTOLO ranking both bottom third of the league relief units.
The only question is whether to go full game or F5 on the Cubs. I have both rated similarly, but they are currently -127 (56%) on Novig, where I can monitor and trade out without penalty if things get dicey after Boyd exits and still have a shot if the Cubs are trailing after five.
If you’re using a more traditional sportsbook, I may opt for F5 (-135 Bet 365 as of this writing).
Furthermore, I favored the over in this contest, but upon digging further realized it was only the Cubs’ portion of it.
If you don’t trust Boyd and prefer that, the best number (and only 4.5 I can currently find) resides at Bet 365 right now (-135), which I would play to -170.
One more thing to note, there does appear to be some rain risk in the early forecast, which is another reason to favor prediction markets for their trading flexibility.
Picks: Cubs -127, 1.27u | Bet to -150
Twins @ Angels Pick
Angels Stadium, surprisingly still called that, plays 2% below average as a run environment with early weather info suggesting a 3-4% boost and scheduled umpire Erich Bacchus adding another 0.9%.
In the end, we’re looking at a scoring environment between 2-3% above average without a significant change in weather, which rarely happens in Los Angeles.
Joe Ryan has not been his best version since the All-Star break, which includes a trip to the IL surrounded by just five starts.
He’s allowed 24 runs (22 earned) in just 23.1 innings. That includes 10 home runs on just eight barrels with six and four coming in his first post-break start. He’s walked just 3.5% of the batters he’s faced, but with a 15.3 K%.
He hasn’t been good, but it’s more 5.83 xERA, 4.98 xFIP bad than 8.49 ERA bad.
I know that’s still not very encouraging, but he may have to work to get hit hard by a projected LAA lineup averaging a putrid 75 wRC+ at home, 81 wRC+ and .132 ISO against RHP and 90 wRC+ over the last month. This includes four batters not reaching a .100 ISO against RHP.
The Minnesota projected defense probably won’t offer much help (-17 FRV), but Ryan is a fly ball pitcher and the outfield isn't as bad as the infield.
The bullpen is competent, not only ranking as BARTOLO’s 15th best bullpen, but also owning the 12th best estimators over the last month (4.04 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 3.69 SIERA), despite the third worst ERA (5.81), predicated on a .348 BABIP and 59.3 LOB%.
Seven straight quality starts for Ryan Detmers, allowing six total runs, half of them in his last start against the Mariners, despite striking out eight with just one walk.
Detmers has a 25.1 K-BB%, while allowing 4.5% Barrels/BBE and a 35.5 HardHit% during this stretch and for the season, non-pitch modeling estimators ranging from a 3.03 FIP to a 3.37 xFIP wrapped around a 3.36 ERA.
The Twins, despite lacking LHBs, appear to be in their worse split against southpaws, especially without Byron Buxton, with the projected lineup averaging a 101 wRC+ and .138 ISO against them, also a 101 wRC+ on the road and just 82 wRC+ over the last month.
They may be a contact prone lineup, but don’t hit the ball particularly hard.
Saturday’s projected defense for the Angels sits an a neutral 0 FRV.
The Angel bullpen ranks just 22nd via BARTOLO, but with the third best estimators in the league over the last month (3.07 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 3.56 SIERA).
To repeat a point made in Thursday’s Leadoff with updated numbers, the has been a collective .362 BABIP. So, of course, on Thursday night, they blew a 3-0 8th inning lead, allowing just their 6th home run in the last month to Walker Jenkins, who has fewer career hits than that, even including that homer.
Anyway, everything except Joe Ryan’s unprecedented recent small sample struggles wrapped around an injury, the Minnesota defense and Angel bullpen BABIP lines up for a low scoring game.
If there were ever an offense for Ryan to snap out of it against…
Picks: Under 7.5 (-117), 0.59u | Bet to 7
