MLB Picks Tonight: Our Staff’s Best Bets Orioles vs. Red Sox, Diamondbacks vs. Astros (Sept. 27)
Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images. Pictured: Lance McCullers Jr. #43 of the Houston Astros.
Here are our two best bets from Tuesday night's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Sean Zerillo: The underlying metrics for Kyle Bradish (4.25 xERA, 3.90 xFIP) and Michael Wacha (4.31 xERA, 3.98 xFIP) are highly comparable. And their Pitching+ metrics per Eno Sarris are identical (100.2). Both starters have been underrated by the betting markets this season, and both have outperformed their season-long metrics of late.
Still, while the starting pitching matchup is a virtual wash, Baltimore has advantages everywhere else in this matchup, aside from home field.
Since the All-Star break, Baltimore's offense ranks eighth in wRC+ against right-handed pitching (108 wrC+), compared to 12th for Boston (104). And their bullpen has been substantially better, ranking eighth in xFIP (3.8) and 13th in K-BB%, while the Red Sox rank 29th in by both measurements.
Moreover, Baltimore is the superior defensive club, ranking eighth in Defensive Runs Saved (+40) compared to a below-average Boston unit (21st, -1).
I projected Baltimore as slight favorites (-101, 50.25% implied) for Tuesday's matchup, and I would bet them down to +108 (48.25% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my number. Moreover, you can look to add more on Baltimore live — once the game shifts to the bullpens – given their distinct advantage in the late innings.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Jules Posner: Zach Davies is starting for the ArizonaDiamondbacks and he's heading into a fairly fade-able situation on Tuesday night. He is pitching in his less favorable split against the best offense against RHP at home over the past couple of weeks.
Additionally, Lance McCullers Jr. will get the ball for the Astros and although he may be due for some regression considering his 1.50 home ERA against his 3.16 FIP, the Astros bullpen is one of the best in MLB.
While the D'Backs offense is stacked with young left handed talented and have been an above average unit against RHP on the road over the past couple of weeks, they do not create a lot of base traffic via walks. Therefore, they limit their ability to leverage their team speed to create additional scoring opportunities.
The Astros' runline opened at -105 and remained steady at those odds overnight, that is a solid play considering the huge overall edge the Astros have. Even if this becomes something of a shootout, the Diamondbacks' bullpen isn't strong enough to keep them in the game against the Astros' offense. Play this to -130 or better.