The calendar flips to September today, and with many teams jockeying for postseason positioning during the final month of the season, the men on the mound can make or break their team's campaign. I've found three worth targeting tonight.
My MLB player prop picks today for Tuesday, September 1, are below.
MLB Player Props Today
- Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts
- MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 Strikeouts
- Eric Lauer Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
Giants vs Pirates Prop
It has been an up-and-down campaign for Logan Webb. He started the season cold, dealt with injury, and then returned to form. He's maintained solid form over his last seven outings.
Webb holds a 2.98 FIP over his last seven starts, and his CSW is up to 28.7% over that span. However, his strikeout rate is just 20 percent in that same span, which suggests he's due for some positive regression in that category.
That has been the trend that should continue tonight. Webb has struck out six or more batters in three of his last five starts, and tonight he faces a Pittsburgh lineup that holds the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
With him expected to go six innings minimum tonight, the window for him to exceed this total is wide open.
Pick: Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Athletics vs Rangers Prop
Next, we head south, where Texas Rangers starter MacKenzie Gore also finds himself in a plus matchup. Like Webb, Gore has been on point lately, posting a 3.26 ERA with a 28.6 CSW and 26.2 strikeout rate over his last seven starts.
Gore's success, particularly in the strikeout category, has been due to his ability to get batters to chase. The Athletics have shown all season long that they are very undisciplined at the dish, holding the sixth-highest chase rate, third-highest swing-strike rate, and subsequently, the fifth-highest strikeout rate against lefties.
Gore has struck out at least seven batters in half of his last 10 starts, but one of his Unders did come against the Athletics in August. Although that was out west in an unfriendly pitcher environment.
At Globe Life Field, Gore has flashed more upside in his pitcher-friendly home park. He's struck out at least seven batters in six home starts, with his overall median sitting at 6.5 strikeouts over 12 total home outings.
Pick: MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Cardinals vs Dodgers Prop
We completely shift gears now as we turn our attention to Dodgers starting pitcher Eric Lauer. Lauer is far from a strikeout artist, holding the lowest CSW on the slate, and his strikeout rate sits at just 15.6 percent for the season.
Lauer is back in the rotation with Roki Sasaki now on the shelf, and he gets a matchup that plays to his strengths tonight. We've seen him excel this season at generating soft contact, as his average exit velocity against and hard-hit rate allowed are elite.
That has resulted in an impressive .238 BABIP over a large sample size. The Cardinals are a very aggressive lineup that doesn't swing and miss often, but also does not rack up a ton of hits, as they have the third-lowest BABIP off lefties in the majors.
Look for Lauer to rack up quick outs, as the Cardinals' aggression and lack of pop work in his favor tonight.
Pick: Eric Lauer Under 4.5 Hits allowed
