MLB Player Props: Expert Fade on Zac Gallen in Royals vs. Diamondbacks
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen.
Royals vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+235 | 8.5 -102 / -120 | +1.5 +106 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -290 | 8.5 -102 / -120 | -1.5 -128 |
Pick: Zac Gallen Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+108) |
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Zac Gallen Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Gallen has cleared this in four of his five starts this season, but I think books are overcorrecting a bit here.
While it’s not surprising that Gallen is averaging a career-high 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings, which is thanks to a career-high 13% swinging strike rate, underlying metrics suggest he should regress toward his career 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings rate moving forward.
This matchup against the Royals should be a tougher one for Gallen to rack up strikeouts. Kansas City has six left-handed hitters, which will suppress his K rate. Also, K.C.’s Nos. 2 and 8 hitters — Vinnie Pasquantino and Nicky Lopez — are extremely tough to strike out.
Gallen has really benefited from getting hitters to swing and miss at pitches out of the zone, but the Royals have the sixth-highest contact rate outside the zone this season, making the matchup slightly tougher to notch Ks.
Gallen’s most likely outcome here is exactly six strikeouts, which I have at about a 20% chance of happening. That’s giving us some nice value on the under since I have him staying under 6.5 Ks 61% of the time, which is a fair price of -155. Getting plus money is especially nice.
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