MLB Player Props Picks Today: 2 Bets for Mitch Keller & Logan Webb (Tuesday, September 27)
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb (Giants)
- We finally have a full MLB slate on Tuesday, and that means lots of value on the player props market.
- Tanner McGrath is backing two pitchers -- one in the Reds vs. Pirates game and another out west in San Francisco.
- Read on for those two player props below.
It's been a long time since we had a full MLB slate. All 30 teams suit up and take the field today, meaning there's plenty of value on the slate to be found.
Here are my two favorite pitcher props, courtesy of our Action Labs projections. Both are plus-money, too.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Mitch Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Reds vs. Pirates||Pirates -115|
|First Pitch||6:35 p.m. ET|
Mitch Keller has improved month over month this season. He's putting together one of the best stretches of his career this September.
Keller has pitched 25 innings in four September starts with a 1.80 ERA and a 22% strikeout rate. He's eclipsed 4.5 Ks in five of his last six starts, striking out a whopping 36 batters over 34 innings during the stretch.
Meanwhile, the Reds pair the 10th-highest strikeout rate against RHPs this season (23.6%) with the second-worst wRC+ against the right side in September (78).
Keller has failed to reach this mark in both starts against Cincinnati this season. But the Reds are slumping — especially with Joey Votto out — and Keller may be reaching his full potential.
In my opinion, Keller is undervalued today.
The projections agree, with three different models projecting Keller to destroy this line:
- The Action Network's Player Props Tool: 5.7 Ks
- Stokastic's Player Props Tool: 4.8 Ks
- FanGraphs' SaberSim Projections: 5.6 Ks
Yet we get to bet over 4.5 Ks at plus-money for Keller on Tuesday.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+105)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Logan Webb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
|Rockies vs. Giants||Giants -190|
|First Pitch||9:45 p.m. ET|
I'm almost always looking to back Logan Webb in the strikeout market. That's especially true when his line is plus-money and under 5.0.
Webb isn't the biggest strikeout guy, but he provides length for the Giants. He's pitched 187 innings over 31 starts this season, pitching over six innings per start on average.
That gives him enough opportunities to strike out batters.
Webb has eclipsed 4.5 Ks in 21 of 31 starts this season, a 68% hit rate that should imply -210 odds to the over.
While he's only striking out about .83 batters per inning pitched (23rd percentile), his CSW rate is still around 30% (65th percentile). I wouldn't be surprised to see his strikeouts pop a bit more as we enter the final week of the season.
Again, we get to bet this prop at plus money.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10