MLB Playoff Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Game 1 of Padres vs Dodgers
- The Dodgers and Padres meet tonight in Los Angeles for Game 1 of the NLDS.
- Favored Los Angeles will start Julio Urias, while underdog San Diego turns to Mike Clevinger.
- Continue reading for our best bets for tonight's NLDS matchup between NL West rivals.
Padres vs. Dodgers Game 1 Odds
|Time||9:37 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Padres are coming off a thrilling Wild Card Round victory over the Mets, but given the length of the series, are forced to start Mike Clevinger tonight. The rested, behemoth Dodgers will have their ace on the mound in Julio Urias.
The Dodgers are understandably huge favorites, but how can you take advantage of that in the betting market? Our analysts have three recommendations.
Here are our best bets from Game 1 between these two NL West rivals.
MLB Odds & Picks
Dodgers Team Total Over 4 (-118)
Odds via Caesars
DJ James: In the second half, Mike Clevinger held a 4.90 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP. He finished with a 4.65 xERA on the season, which is abysmal for a team expecting a sustained playoff run. He also ranks in the 39th percentile in hard hit rate.
The Dodgers had a 122 wRC+ since August 1 against right-handed pitching with a .785 OPS. They also walked nearly 10% of the time. They had nine hitters eclipsing a 89 mph average exit velocity, which means they will take advantage of Clevinger’s inability to limit hard contact this season.
Finally, the Padres had an awful bullpen compared to the field in that same timeframe. They had a team 4.04 xFIP in relief with a 71.7% LOB percentage and 23.5% strikeout percentage.
In the playoffs, teams will encounter plenty of situations needing to strand runners, and lately, the Padres have not been able to do so. They will struggle with this against a team like Los Angeles.
Clevinger has allowed 14 earned runs in 13 innings against the Dodgers this season, so the Dodgers should do so again on Tuesday. Take the team total over 4 (-118), and play to 5 (-125).
Dodgers First Five -0.5 (-135)
Odds via PointsBet
Mike Ianniello: The Dodgers dominated their division foe the San Diego Padres this season, going 14-5 in the division series and outscoring them 109-47 on their way to one of the most successful seasons in baseball history.
Los Angeles will start Julio Urias, who posted a 2.16 ERA. He has been even better as the season has gone on. In 13 starts since the All-Star break, Urias is 9-1 with a 1.26 ERA. In his four starts against San Diego, the Dodgers won all four games and he posted a 1.50 ERA, allowing just four runs in 24 innings.
With the new Wild Card Round format, the Padres are stuck with their No. 4 pitcher in Game 1 of the series. Mike Clevinger missed all of last season with Tommy John surgery and then has been pretty inconsistent all year. He is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA and 4.65 xERA on the year.
He has really struggled down the stretch this season, posting a 6.09 ERA over his last seven games. Clevinger has also struggled on the road this season and ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in opponent xwOBA against him.
With the familiarity of these two teams, Clevinger made three starts against the Dodgers this season and posted a 9.69 ERA against them. He allowed at least four runs in every single meeting. Mookie Betts and Trea Turner are both hitting over .400 against Clevinger in their careers.
Expect the Dodgers to get out to a quick lead in this one with a huge pitching mismatch. I like the First Five Innings spread at -135 and would play it at -150 or better.
Dodgers -1.5 (-105)
Odds via DraftKings
Kenny Ducey: The Padres ranked all the way down in 15th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, and I expect them to struggle once again with the indomitable Julio Urias. The left-handed owns a 1.50 ERA against the Padres this season in four starts, and if you happened to forget he’s been an excellent playoff pitcher through the years with a 3.52 ERA in 53 ⅔ innings.
He allowed five runs to the Braves last postseason, and it marked just his third postseason outing ever with more than two earned runs to his name in 22 appearances.
Anyway, the Padres did appear to look good at the plate against the Mets but in the end hit just .240 with a .753 OPS. Those aren’t incredibly inspired numbers, and San Diego did also benefit from the Mets’ top three pitchers being in poor form heading into the postseason.
Urias is a machine, pitching to a 1.27 ERA in his last 14 starts dating back to mid-July, and the Padres still have some glaring issues at the plate. On that subject, Mike Clevinger also has some serious issues, pitching to a 4.65 xERA in 114 ⅓ innings this season.
It’s unlikely that Clevinger sets the Padres’ bullpen up to make an impact here given his season to this point. It’s equally unlikely that the Padres break through against the rock-solid Urias. I’d take the first five, but am a much bigger fan of paying -105 on the full-game run line as opposed to -150 for the first five run line.