There are just 6 games on the MLB calendar for Thursday, September 4, but that didn't stop our MLB systems and betting experts from finding betting value.
So, continue reading as today's MLB best bets are below.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bet Labs' Phillies vs Brewers Best Bet: System Suggests Under
By Bet Labs
This system targets unders in MLB series games (game two or later) in which both teams have winning records, suggesting quality pitching and competitive matchups. However, it also looks for games in which public betting leans toward the over — likely expecting fireworks between top teams — which creates contrarian value on the under. By capitalizing on low public support for the under (≤35%), the strategy fades public perception in favor of market inefficiencies, especially when bettors overestimate offensive output late in a series.
Overall, this system has generated a 5% ROI as it has cashed 54% of its picks (1369-1161-110). This season, the system has cashed 54% of its picks (137-118-10) and generated a 3% ROI.
Pick: Under 8 (-118)
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Bet Labs' White Sox vs Twins Best Bet: Where Will the Runs Come From?
By Bet Labs
"Weather Watch Unders" is a system built for MLB totals bettors who understand how environmental factors quietly shift run production. This approach keys in on games with moderate to strong winds — especially those blowing in or cross-field — paired with mild to cool temperatures, a known recipe for stifled fly balls and reduced scoring.
When totals open high, but tick down before first pitch, it signals sharp money reacting to these same weather cues. With home moneyline ranges excluding extreme mismatches, the model focuses on fairly priced contests where weather truly has a chance to swing scoring. Layer in the context of regular-season motivation, and this strategy captures overlooked market inefficiencies in totals inflated by prior offensive output rather than conditions on the field.
Overall, this system is 1543-1253-151 (55) and has generated a 6% ROI. This season, that ROI has jumped up to 12% as this system has cashed 59% of its picks (70-49-3).
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
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Tony Sartori's Yankees vs Astros Best Bet: Back Both Pitching Staffs
By Tony Sartori
Following Cristian Javier is a bullpen that ranks in the top 10 in ERA, xFIP and wins above replacement (WAR). The main concern in taking the under in this matchup is New York’s powerhouse lineup.
That said, Javier is capable of handling the task. Through 66 combined plate appearances against him, the current Yankees roster has a .180 batting average and .195 xBA.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-102)
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