The NFL is finally back on Thursday night, with the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles hosting the Cowboys in an NFC East rivalry game. That's where I begin my NFL Week 1 predictions and picks.
Every week, I'll break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL lines move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
With that said, I'll be giving you the NFL bets I'm betting now, leaning towards taking and passing on entirely.
Here's to a great season!
NFL Week 1 Predictions, Picks
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Friday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 1 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
I just can't help but love the Cowboys this season, and more specifically in their opener against the Eagles.
Perhaps it's the tennis handicapper in me that sees a perennially overvalued public side and must bet them as big underdogs, or perhaps I just love offense. Whatever the case, I think it was premature of us to write off Dallas after just eight games with Dak Prescott last year, and now its personnel has only grown stronger.
Philadelphia's defense looks like an unsolvable issue coming off a dominant 2025, but if you want to find any slightly soft spot in this unit, it's in the secondary after the departures of Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Dallas' periphery offensive players looked great this preseason, and they'll be supporting a talented receiver group that has added George Pickens and will be giving more opportunities to talented youngsters like Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin.
This Cowboys roster has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, and despite a down year on defense, they still managed to excel in getting to the passer and finished 13th in takeaways per game.
Their defense should become more balanced with Kenny Clark replacing Micah Parsons and helping the interior, and it may do just enough to let the offense keep them in this game. They'll hope Jalen Hurts has another slow start, just as he did in 2024, under a new offensive coordinator — the sixth he's had in his short career.
Dallas has turned over the entire running back position and should look to pass all night, and it's hard to envision it not having any success with the weapons Prescott will have at his disposal.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys +8.5
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Friday Night Football
The Chiefs offense was surprisingly inefficient in 2024, ranking 12th in EPA per dropback, and with Isiah Pacheco going down early in the season with an injury, they finished 15th in rushing grade, according to Pro Football Focus.
Some of that was due to the poor performance of their offensive line, but some was also due to Patrick Mahomes and his pedestrian 77.1% adjusted completion percentage, which sat 15th among players to take at least 150 dropbacks.
The Chargers' secondary is coming off an excellent season, meanwhile, and it's incredibly hard to decide which elite pass defense is the better one here.
This is a Los Angeles team that shied away from throwing the ball a year ago, opting to let a periodically-injured Justin Herbert operate more as a game manager. It certainly wouldn't be the worst idea to run the rock against a Chiefs defensive line that is weak around Chris Jones, but it's not like the Chargers were world-beaters on the ground with the 21st-ranked attack by DVOA a year ago.
This game should feature plenty of running with both teams leaning heavily on their pass defense, and there's no reason it shouldn't take a similar shape to the two games played between these teams last year, which were low scoring in nature with KC winning 19-17 and 17-10.
Verdict: Bet Under 47.5
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Passes
Dolphins vs. Colts
Yeah, no thanks on this one.
The Dolphins have looked like a generational offense and a Big 10 offense for parts of the last two seasons, and Tua Tagovailoa's constant injury woes have stunted his development — if there was anything there to begin with.
This offense has plenty of talent, but Indianapolis ate teams like this for breakfast a year ago with the ninth-graded defense by PFF and had a knack for stopping the run with an above-average grade in DVOA.
On the other side, though, the Colts don't have a quarterback.
They're going to try out Daniel Jones against a solid Dolphins pass rush, which sounds like a recipe for disaster, but Miami's secondary did struggle last year and ranked just 26th in takeaways per game.
It's unfortunate — the Colts were one of my favorite teams to bet on a year ago.
Maybe Jones can manage this task? Maybe?
You surely don't want to bet on that, do you?
Verdict: Pass
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Panthers vs. Jaguars
The Panthers have finally rebuilt their offensive line. Congrats to all involved!
Now, what about this defense? Did we forget about that? They spent three of their first four picks on offensive players a year ago, and rookie Trevin Wallace — taken in the third round — struggled last season as a starter.
This year, they took two intriguing defensive ends early, but it still seems like it's going to take some time to repair one of the worst units in the league. Carolina has tried its best, bringing in a slew of veterans over the offseason, but I've got some real concerns about the secondary — particularly with Jaycee Horn missing most of camp after injuring his hand in a car accident and looking uncertain to play here.
Jacksonville's unit is looking arguably worse, however, and its offense looks promising but is still very much unproven.
That's the story of this game — there's a lot of noise surrounding the additions these respective teams have made, but these teams have been so bad that we're going to need a sample size before proceeding.
Verdict: Pass
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Titans vs. Broncos
I always find it hard to fade exciting rookie quarterbacks in the first few weeks of the season, particularly when the market is this sour on them. No, I don't think Cam Ward will have the best passing line of the week — you'd have to be insane to try a rookie quarterback in his debut against the second-best defense in football.
Having said that, this is a pretty crooked line for Week 1, and the Broncos do perform worse against the run, which should aid Ward and allow Tony Pollard to build upon a solid 2024 season. Losing Tyjae Spears was a big blow, but with the offensive line showing some signs of life, it's certainly possible Tennessee can move the ball here. We also can't forget Ward was excellent at Miami when it came to throwing under pressure, which will surely help him adjust to this level quickly.
The Broncos did run the ball at the 15th-most frequent clip last year, and didn't seem inclined to have Bo Nix take many big risks. Tennessee's run defense grades out as a good one, and could bring this contest surprisingly level.
Verdict: Pass
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Vikings vs Bears (Monday Night Football)
The Vikings have a new quarterback, sorta, with second-year man J.J. McCarthy healthy and set to debut in Week 1.
This was a team that thrived by completing short passes to their skilled pass-catchers, and while McCarthy should be able to do that, he won’t have the suspended Jordan Addison here, nor Rondale Moore. Three other wideouts come in with injury concerns, too, including Justin Jefferson – and fullback CJ Ham is on injured reserve.
I know we were swept off our feet by the Vikings in 2024, but this is already looking like a much different season. I don’t care how good Kevin O’Connell is at calling plays, if this team is down five players on offense, it’s going to be a long night.
Chicago’s offensive line is only getting better with veteran Joe Thuney joining the fold, and Minnesota’s defensive line is one of the strengths of the team with the fourth-best pass rush win rate a year ago.
That should help Caleb Williams here, but he’s been far too volatile to trust – particularly without much of a ground game. I’ll leave this one alone, but I want it on record that I’m a believer in the Bears this season in the division.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Steelers vs. Jets
The Jets kind of remind me of the AFC Cowboys in the sense that they have a talented defense, which simply lost inspiration in 2024 amidst a brutal showing from the offense.
Now, they'll slot Brandon Stephens and rookie Azareye'h Thomas in next to Sauce Gardner to beef up their secondary even further, and they'll return Quincy Williams and Jamien Sherwood at linebacker which should make this unit a hard one to score on.
The Jets offense is the bigger question, but it really shouldn't be with this offensive line poised for a massive season with the constant development of their talented youngsters.
Justin Fields shouldn't be asked to do much, and in this matchup, his legs should help him evade Pittsburgh's menacing pass rush when his trusty line lets it through.
Aaron Rodgers will have DK Metcalf to throw to, but he won't have Pickens — who left for Dallas in the offseason. Even if that's the case, New York's secondary should continue the veteran's decline — and it wasn't like Rodgers was able to move the ball downfield like he used to, even with some talented receivers a year ago.
With a downgrade on the offensive line and holes at the skill positions, I think this could be a long day at the office.
Verdict: Lean Jets +124
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Giants vs. Commanders
There may be a lot of buzz around the Giants, but everyone from Brian Daboll to Russell Wilson will have to earn our trust this season before we can take them seriously.
Washington gave up the fourth-lowest completion percentage on deep passes a year ago, allowing a stingy seven yards per attempt. That will be a big nail in the coffin for Wilson and his game-breaking deep ball, and a line that finished bottom-five according to PFF a year ago could put the veteran at further disadvantage.
While the Commanders' defense lacked juice in 2024, they did bring in veterans like Javon Kinlaw and Von Miller to help a slowly improving young group up front. They'll start the season with a friendly matchup against a young line that simply hasn't returned anything on the draft capital invested in it, and will also be able to lean on a secondary that did take away explosive plays a year ago.
That's all to say, the defense just needs to do its job here to let this explosive offense take control of the game. Washington had an incredible finish to the season on that end with Jayden Daniels growing stronger with each passing week, and now it has added Deebo Samuel to play alongside Terry McLaurin.
Washington's offense is light-years ahead of every unit in this game, and with a new quarterback operating behind a poor line, this number should be a bit higher.
Verdict: Lean Commanders -5.5
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Cardinals vs. Saints
The Saints are exciting again, bringing in Kellen Moore as their new head coach to jettison this offense back into relevance, but with all the talent on that side of the ball, they're still going to be leaning on Spencer Rattler.
The second-year man out of South Carolina played just six games a season ago, running a 4:5 touchdown to interception ratio and a measly 57% completion percentage. Even with Alvin Kamara helping him out in the backfield in the passing game and plenty of talented pass-catchers from Chris Olave to Juwan Johnson, Rattler will need to get the ball into their hands.
Well, Arizona did rank just 20th in takeaways per game last season, however, and was 29th in EPA allowed per play. After a strong preseason, where Rattler went 30-for-43 (69.8%) for 295 yards, I'm leaning towards betting on New Orleans to score some points here. I'm just as hot on Kyler Murray and this well-rounded Cardinals offense, too, particularly against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league a year ago. The line's a bit high, though, and perhaps we look for a live spot here if both offenses show some rust.
Verdict: Lean Over 42.5
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Lions vs. Packers
Now, for the game of the week. Micah Parsons is expected to make his Packers debut at home, beefing up a weak pass rush, though it'll come at the expense of losing some interior line help with Kenny Clark heading back to Dallas.
That should be the deciding factor in this game, considering Detroit's offensive line remains one of the best in the NFC and their supply of explosive playmakers seems never-ending. There are certainly some questions on defense for Detroit, however, with Za'Darius Smith gone and Levi Onwuzurike out for the season.
Aidan Hutchinson will be on the field, sure, but he's also matched up with Zach Tom at tackle, who was Green Bay's anchor on the line last year. Jordan Love should have plenty of room to operate, and while that would generally lead most to side comfortably with the Packers here, I just can't help but remember how inconsistent this offense was last year — particularly against some of the stronger defenses in the league.
Perhaps this is the season where the growing pains stop for this talented young offense, but this will once again be a big litmus test.
Verdict: Lean Packers -2.5
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Texans vs. Rams
With all the new quarterbacks around the league, it seems like we've forgotten about C.J. Stroud. In just his second season, he graded out as the 14th-best quarterback of the 42 ranked by PFF, and the talent around him at the skill positions has only grown stronger with Nick Chubb legitimizing this rushing attack.
The line is a bigger question, and even if I'm higher on Laken Tomlinson than most, there's still some questionable personnel here. Stroud took a ton of sacks last year, and now Laremy Tunsil is gone to further hurt this unit — and L.A. will be bringing the 10th-best pass rush from a year ago into this season, one which could even grow stronger with some young talent off the edge showing promise as rookies.
With all that said, rust could be the great equalizer here. Sean McVay never plays his starters in the preseason, and the result has been a 1-2 record in Week 1 over the past three seasons with the offense scoring 10, 13 and 20 points in those respective games. Now, he'll be running out a 37-year-old under center in Matthew Stafford, who missed the entire preseason due to injury and was fine at best last year.
Houston's secondary remains strong, and the offense had enough firepower to overcome the line issues last year. I can't help being infatuated with another road dog.
Verdict: Lean Texans +2.5
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Ravens vs Bills (Sunday Night Football)
The Bills defense went in the opposite direction last year after making so many vital gains in 2023. While their EPA doesn’t look all that bad on paper, many evaluators picked apart members of this secondary for what could have been a far worse season if not for the great job done by the offense.
Well, the line remains a strength of this team, and James Cook will return alongside the exciting Ray Davis to wreak havoc on opposing defenses.
Josh Allen is also healthy again, but now he’ll have more turnover at receiver with Stefon Diggs departing and a duo of Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore taking his spot.
I could not be less excited about those additions, particularly Palmer, who was a disappointment for San Diego last season, and now Allen will have to go up against the best secondary in football in Week 1.
Buffalo’s offense stalled against Baltimore, 35-10, during the regular season last year only to triumph 27-25 in the playoffs, but the common theme there is that this defense had no idea how to slow Baltimore.
With something to prove on offense for Buffalo against a terrorizing defensive front and a defense that hasn’t improved enough, you have to like Baltimore in this spot – even on the road.
Verdict: Lean Ravens +1.5
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NFL Week 1 Picks
Bengals vs. Browns
We all remember the Bengals' 2024 season, which was sewn in heartbreak. This offense did great work even without much of an offensive line, and it just seemed like the season could never get back on track, thanks to the shortcomings of this defense and some unnecessary bad luck.
The defense should be better than this, though. Cam Taylor-Britt and Geno Stone were excellent before their disappointing 2024 campaigns, and they still have Trey Hendrickson up front.
Now, they draw a poor Browns line, which will be protecting 40-year-old Joe Flacco, who has a lack of playmakers around him.
Can Cleveland run the ball well enough on Cincinnati to make headway in this game? I don't think so, particularly given that it shouldn't have the opportunity to get anything done through the air, and Flacco will be a massive liability against this pass rush, which should opt to blitz all afternoon.
The arrow should be pointing back up for Cincinnati with its core intact and healthy, and while the offensive line looked awful in preseason, Joe Burrow has overcome a bad line for most of his career. This should be a statement win.
Verdict: Bet Bengals -5.5
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Raiders vs. Patriots
Why do I love the Raiders so much?
I feel like this defense has played hard-nosed football under Antonio Pierce the last couple of seasons, but would only do its best work in the second half of the season. Now, they'll be playing for Pete Carroll, who has commandeered some excellent defenses in the past and should bring some much-needed consistency on that side of the ball.
The secondary and pass rush are two big questions for Vegas, but after sitting bottom-five in EPA per play, the Patriots have just as much to prove on offense. Drake Maye had his moments, but this offensive line is in a brutal spot; when Morgan Moses is your biggest addition, you've got some real issues.
That may wake up a slumbering Raiders pass rush, which still has Maxx Crosby, and on the flip side, this offense looks ready to roll with Geno Smith reuniting with Carroll and teaming up with rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, who should wreak havoc on short passing plays.
This team had a good core and improved upon it, while New England's depth chart features a ton of moving parts. I expect a big showing from the offense, which should be far too much for Maye and company to overcome.
Verdict: Bet Raiders +120
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Buccaneers vs. Falcons
The sharp money continues to hit the Under here, but it's hard for me not to take two utterly explosive offenses — particularly with questions abound for both defenses. Atlanta was in the bottom five of the league in pressure rate on the quarterback last season, and even with the addition of Leonard Floyd up front — who's coming off a bad season — it will take a Herculean performance to penetrate this elite Buccaneers line.
You don't want to make Baker Mayfield any more comfortable in the pocket as he already is, leading Tampa to a division title a year ago, and to make matters worse, young Bucky Irving just continued to improve in the backfield with each passing week.
While Atlanta's defense is weak, Tampa's never found itself last season and looks quite vulnerable up front and in the secondary, with few improvements being made. The Falcons and Buccaneers should have free rein to get the ball to their talented pass-catchers in space, and if there are any hesitations about Michael Penix, Jr., those should quickly subside now that he's got some game experience and a full camp with the starting unit under his belt.
Verdict: Bet Over 47.5 (-105)
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49ers vs. Seahawks
Yes, I love a revenge spot — almost as much as I love Sam Darnold. He looked like a starting-caliber quarterback in his short time with the 49ers, filling in for the injured Brock Purdy, and last year he made the Pro Bowl with a 4,000-yard, 35-touchdown season — one where he completed a career-best 66.2% of passes.
He's always had this talent, but it was only able to flourish in a new-school offense, which featured plenty of speed and short passes. Seattle aired it out a ton with Geno Smith under center, but that was also a personnel group which featured the now-departed DK Metcalf.
Darnold will step into an exciting offense here, led by Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp, and he should have some additional help in short-yardage passing from the UCLA boys, Zach Charbonnet and Jake Bobo.
I'm very excited about this new Seahawks offense, and even with a questionable line, the 49ers' pass rush took a big step backwards last year. San Francisco's defense isn't what it used to be, and its offense should take a step back with it this year after losing Deebo Samuel. Brandon Aiyuk remains injured, too, and Jauan Jennings is in danger of missing this one as well.
Verdict: Bet Seahawks +2.5
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