Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, September 3.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Orioles vs. Padres, Blue Jays vs. Reds, Braves vs. Cubs, and Yankees vs. Astros. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, September 3
Orioles vs. Padres
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -170 |
LHP Cade Povich (BAL) vs. LHP Nestor Cortes (SDP)
I view Cade Povich as better than his 5.69 xERA and career 5.12 ERA. His command (102 Location+) and strikeout minus walk rate (17.2%) are both better than the MLB average, and his 3.84 xFIP and 3.79 SIERA aren’t bad.
He has increased his changeup usage since returning from hip inflammation in August, and he has pitched to a 3.35 xFIP with a 20.9% strikeout minus walk rate since then.
Both lineups are in their lesser offensive split against a left-handed starting pitcher, and we have a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate in Emil Jiminez (career 45-32-4 to the Under, +11.7% ROI).
I project 7.87 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-108 | Play to -115)
Blue Jays vs. Reds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -160 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +135 |
RHP Shane Bieber (TOR) vs. RHP Zack Littell (CIN)
Zack Littell (4.34 xERA, 16.8% K-BB) is a terrible fit for Great American, as he allows way too many home runs (52 over the past two seasons, 1.68 HR/9) and is now pitching in the league’s most homer-friendly park.
Even worse, the Reds need length on Wednesday after using six relievers on Monday in a bullpen game.
Toronto��s bullpen has been struggling since the trade deadline, and the Jays deployed three of their better relievers on Tuesday.
We have a hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate on Wednesday in Mark Wegner (career 291-271-23 to the Over, 51.7% win, +0.9% ROI).
I project 9.14 runs for this game.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-108 | Play to -115)
Braves vs. Cubs
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -120o / 100u | +125 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -120o / 100u | -150 |
RHP Bryce Elder (ATL) vs. RHP Cade Horton (CHC)
We have cooler temperatures in Chicago (67 degrees at first pitch) with rain in the forecast, but only moderate humidity. I lowered my projected total by approximately 0.75 runs compared to the average day at Wrigley — I project 8.01 runs for this game.
These conditions fit our Action Labs PRO Betting System for Wrigley Field Unders.
Cade Horton is overperforming in the NL ROY race, posting a 2.92 ERA but a 4.03 xERA, 4.37 xFIP and 4.03 botERA. I’d bet one of the position players instead, like Drake Baldwin or Isaac Collins.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100 | Play to -110)
Yankees vs. Astros
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 -105o / -115u | -135 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 9 -105o / -115u | +110 |
RHP Will Warren (NYY) vs. RHP Jason Alexander
Will Warren is struggling, posting a 4.75 xFIP, 8.3% K-BB and 97 Pitching+ since July. He’s lost 10 points of Stuff+ as the season has progressed.
Warren still projects better than Jason Alexander, but Alexander has posted similar results to this more recent version of Warren.
The Astros' offense has been without Yordan Alvarez for most of the 2025 season, but I project them with a 115 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with him in the lineup.
I project the Astros ML at -104.
Pick: Astros ML (+110 | Play to +103)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, September 3
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- Royals ML (-155 | Play to -175)
- Phillies ML (+105 | Play to +100)
- Astros ML (+110 | Play to +103)
- Orioles vs. Padres Under 8.5 (-108 | Play to -115)
- Blue Jays vs. Reds Over 8.5 (-108 | Play to -115)
- Guardians vs. Red Sox Over 9 (+100 | Play to -110)
- Braves vs. Cubs Under 8.5 (+100 | Play to -110)
- White Sox vs. Twins Under 8.5 (+105 | Play to -105)
- Giants vs. Rockies Over 11 (-105 | Play to -115)
