MLB Props Friday | Bobby Miller, Jordan Hicks, Freddy Peralta (April 5)
Today's MLB slate gets started early on this glorious Friday, and there's no better way to enjoy it than by cashing some player props. I've found three men on the mound who are bursting with value for some of Friday's marquee matchups.
So, let's dive into our top three MLB props for Friday, April 5.
MLB Player Props For Friday, April 5
Getting things started for us on this slate will be Dodgers starter Bobby Miller. Miller looked absolutely electric in his first start of the season as he punched out 11 Cardinals, allowing just two hits over six innings of work.
However, he'll be in for a much tougher assignment in his second start this afternoon against the Chicago Cubs. The Cubbies come into this game with the lowest team strikeout rate in the majors.
While they are bound for some regression as they are not a lineup built like the Cleveland Guardians, you have to give them credit as there's been a clear philosophy change under Craig Counsell.
In addition to this, Miller has gone under this number in 16 of his last 24 outings. That 66% hit rate gives us implied odds of -194, which gives great line support to our Action Labs projection of 5.3 strikeouts.
Pick: Bobby Miller Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-142)
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San Francisco Giants flamethrower, Jordan Hicks, may not have the best matchup for his second start of the year, but this line is not factoring in his newfound effectiveness as a starter.
The Giants stretched Hicks out to be a starter this spring, and he has found nothing but success. He was lights out in spring training as he racked up 28 strikeouts in about 17 innings pitched.
That success continued in his first start of the year against the same Padres lineup he'll see today. Hicks struck out six Padres in five innings of work while allowing no runs on three hits.
When Hicks sails over this number again this afternoon, it may be one of the last times we see his strikeout total this low as a starter. So, take advantage of the plus-money price now.
Pick: Jordan Hicks Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta has been a steady source of strikeouts over the last two seasons. However, his strikeout total is priced closer toward his ceiling rather than his actual average.
Over the last two years, Peralta has started 50 games and has averaged just 6.2 strikeouts in that period. Now we all know that he has double-digit strikeout upside, and that certainly could be in the cards tonight as he faces a Seattle Mariners lineup that currently leads the league in strikeout rate.
However, it's nowhere near as likely that Peralta goes over this total as the line indicates. Peralta has gone under this total in 70% of his last 50 starts. That gives us implied odds of -233 that he will go under tonight.
The line value is tremendous on this under, and it also helps that this under is the top play of the day, according to our Action Labs projections. The projections have him slated for 6.2 strikeouts.
Pick: Freddy Peralta Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110)
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