MLB Props Today | Saturday Odds, Picks for Luis Severino, Merrill Kelly, Bryce Miller

MLB Props Today | Saturday Odds, Picks for Luis Severino, Merrill Kelly, Bryce Miller article feature image

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Severino.

  • With 15 games on the MLB Saturday slate, there are plenty of player props to choose from, which can be overwhelming.
  • Action Network’s Doug Ziefel does the heavy lifting and highlights three pitcher props he’s playing.
  • Continue reading for a breakdown of his picks for Luis Severino, Bryce Miller and Merrill Kelly.

We kick off the weekend in MLB with a massive 15-game slate. And with every team in action, that means there's a boatload of player props to sort through, but I've done most of the heavy lifting for you as I've found three of my favorites for Saturday.

Let's dive into today's top MLB player props.

MLB Player Props For Saturday, June 24

Luis Severino Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-115)

Rangers vs. Yankees
First Pitch4:05 p.m. ET
Best Linebet365

Luis Severino got a late start to the season, and while his return was highly anticipated, he has not done much to help a desolated Yankees pitching staff. Through six starts, Severino has a 6.30 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP.

His command has not been what it was in years past, and that has caused him to make mistakes in and out of the strike zone. His hard-hit rate ranks in the 19th percentile amongst qualified pitchers, and his barrel rate is even lower in the eighth percentile.

On Saturday, he'll be up against a Rangers lineup that has been punishing pitchers all season. There could not be a worse matchup for Sevy.

In addition to his struggles and the tough matchup, we have not seen Severino work deep in five of his six starts this season. With Texas making him work and impending rain later in the game, all signs point to a short outing.

Pick: Under 17.5 Pitching Outs

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Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)

Diamondbacks vs. Giants
First Pitch4:05 p.m. ET
Best LineFanDuel

Merrill Kelly has been an unsung hero for the Diamondbacks, as his performance has given them a legit 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation (with Zac Gallen).

One big key to Kelly's success this season has been his ability to rack up strikeouts. His strikeout rate is up over five percent from last season, and today, he gets the perfect matchup to add to his season total.

Kelly takes on the Giants, who boast the second-highest team strikeout rate in the majors at 25 percent. Their mark is three percent over the league average.

Lastly, Kelly has proven that this total has been too low for him. He has exceeded this total in nine of 15 starts, but that only adds to a longer trend.

He has eclipsed this total in 17 of his last 25 starts, which gives us implied odds of -212. Add the great matchup into those numbers; this is a smash spot for Kelly.

Pick: Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Strikeouts

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Bryce Miller Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-170)

Mariners vs. Orioles
First Pitch4:05 p.m. ET
Best LineDraftKings

Bryce Miller has been just what the Mariners need after the loss of Robbie Ray earlier this season. The rookie right-hander has been excellent in his first nine MLB starts as he enters today's outing with a 3.68 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP.

He has a tough assignment ahead of him as he'll square off against the red-hot Orioles. While Baltimore could give him some trouble, we are only focusing on one category in the stat sheet.

Miller has shown he can compete at the big league level with his heavy fastball usage — as he can run it up to 95 mph — but it's his command of it that's been key. His walk rate is one of the best in the league, and he'll need to attack this Orioles lineup.

Baltimore is getting too much credit here, as Miller's strikeout total is too low given what we've seen from him. He has had at least four strikeouts in six of his nine starts and he should be able to go over again.

Pick: Over 3.5 Strikeouts

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