Martin Perez MLB Player Prop Odds | Expert Pick for Phillies vs Rangers

We kicked the first Saturday slate of the new MLB season off right as Spencer Strider dominated and Rafael Devers gave us a multihit effort. Now, we'll aim to finish the first weekend strong by targeting three men on the mound — Trevor Rogers, Graham Ashcraft and Martin Perez.

Let's dive into our top three player prop picks for Sunday's MLB slate, which features a play for Phillies vs. Rangers in Sunday Night Baseball.

MLB Player Props For Sunday, April 2nd

Martin Perez over 4.5 strikeouts (+120)

This was a bad price that was hung and has since been hammered. However, this prop still has plenty of value even if you take it at -120.

In 2022, Martin Perez broke out as the ace of the Rangers staff, posting a 2.89 ERA while maintaining the highest strikeout rate of his career. The lefty is excellent at generating soft contact, but he showed that his offspeed stuff could miss plenty of bats.

His changeup is his ultimate weapon, particularly against right-handed hitters, and he had a 33.5% whiff rate on it last season. Tonight, he will see a majority of right-handed hitters in the Phillies lineup, so he's in line to pick up where he left off in 2022.

On top of the matchup, Perez proved last season that this total is far too low. He struck out at least five batters in 71.9 percent of his starts.

That gives us a whopping implied odds of -255 that he will go over. That is why you should take this at nearly any price you get.

Pick: Martin Perez Over 4.5 Strikeouts

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Trevor Rogers over 1.5 walks (-115)

Trevor Rogers' breakout season in 2021 is beginning to seem like an outlier, as command issues have plagued him since. He was in the bottom third of the league in walk rate last season, averaging 3.79 walks per nine innings.

While he did struggle last season, Rogers put together a solid spring as he posted a 17:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. However, that was in Spring Training against lesser hitters than he'll see in the Mets lineup.

The Mets were eighth in the National League in walk rate last year and have already shown their excellent plate discipline through the first three games this season. They enter this matchup ninth in the majors in walk rate.

In addition to what we've seen from both Rogers and the Mets thus far, we must take a larger sample size into our handicap. Last year, Rogers walked at least two batters in 60.9 percent of his starts.

That gives us implied odds of -155 that he'll go over this afternoon.

Pick: Over 1.5 walks 

Graham Ashcraft over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)

If you look at his numbers from last season, you would not peg Graham Ashcraft as a strikeout artist. However, it was clear in Spring Training that he made some tweaks, and his strikeout numbers skyrocketed because of them.

He has electric stuff with a cutter that sits around 97 mph, but the most significant difference for Ashcraft in spring was that he threw his slider for strikes. Last season, Ashcraft's slider was his putaway pitch, as it had a 32% whiff rate and just a .229 xBA.

By the end of Spring Training, Ashcraft said that he had everything clicking, and it showed as his final outing was dominant. He went six innings and struck out 10 with just one hit and no walks.

His improved arsenal should be deadly to this Pirates lineup that has already shown a tendency to swing and miss. Pittsburgh enters this game fifth in strikeout rate.

Pick: Graham Ashcraft Over 4.5 Strikeouts

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