MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Bryce Elder, Logan Gilbert, More

MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Bryce Elder, Logan Gilbert, More article feature image

Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Elder (Braves)

  • Doug Ziefel gets you set for Saturday's MLB slate by providing three player prop bets to make.
  • Our MLB expert is taking a look at three starting pitcher strikeout props, including Braves starter Bryce Elder.
  • Dive in below and formulate your MLB card for Saturday.

We have another tremendous Saturday slate of MLB action on tap.

One way to make it better is to cash some player props. I've found three strikeout props that have a great deal of value this afternoon.

Let's dive right in and pad our bankroll today.

MLB Player Props For Saturday, June 17

Justin Steele Over 4.5 Strikeouts -110

Orioles vs. Cubs
First Pitch2:20 pm ET
Best LineDraftKings

The Cubs' lethal lefty has had it all working this season, as he comes into this matchup with a 2.65 ERA. He'll be up against an Orioles club that's been red-hot at the plate over the last week, but that doesn't mean they aren't going to strike out.

Steele's strikeout rate has dropped a bit this season, but his stuff has still been tough to touch. He's primarily a two-pitch pitcher; his fastball has a 21.8% whiff rate and his slider has a 30% whiff rate.

Both of those rates are nearly identical to last season, when his strikeout rate was three percent higher. With his stuff playing the same — or even a bit better than last year — Steele should be due for some positive regression in the strikeout column.

He's gone over this total in 15 of his last 25 starts, but only six of 13 this season. He should move towards breaking that 2023 trend while eclipsing his total this afternoon.

Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts -135

White Sox vs. Mariners
First Pitch4:10 pm ET
Best LineDraftKings

Logan Gilbert's strikeout rate has taken a big leap this season, as it's up nearly five percent from 2022. He's done a good job of implementing more breaking balls into his arsenal, as they're his most successful pitches.

His slider, curveball and splitter each have whiff rates over 27%.

While he's been able to set more hitters down on strikes this season, his total this afternoon is set closer to his ceiling.

Gilbert has had some high strikeout totals this season, but still hasn't surpassed this total in seven of his 13 outings.

That rate feeds into a longer trend in his career; he's gone under this total in 65.2% of his last 46 starts. That gives us implied odds of -187 that he'll go under again today.

It also helps that our Action Labs projections love his under, as they have him slated for 5.4 strikeouts.

Pick: Under 6.5 Strikeouts

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Bryce Elder Under 5.5 Strikeouts -125

Rockies vs. Braves
First Pitch4:10 pm ET
Best Linebet365

Speaking of another play our Action Labs projections like this afternoon, we turn our attention to Braves starter Bryce Elder.

Elder has done a tremendous job filling in for the injuries in the Atlanta rotation.

However, he's been very fortunate to work around the hard contact he's allowed. Edler sits below the 20th percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit rate. He won't get away with it for much longer, as he's due for some sizable regression.

Even the road Rockies could knock him around this afternoon, which is why his Action Labs projection is just 5.1.

It'll pay to fade Elder, as you don't want to be on the wrong end of his impending blowup.

Pick: Under 5.5 Strikeouts

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