MLB Strikeout Projections Today | Daily Leader Prop Odds for Friday, June 30
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Josiah Gray
A unique prop market that has emerged at FanDuel this year is daily strikeout leader. The sportsbook lists odds for every starting pitcher on a given day and you can bet on who will finish with the most strikeouts on the slate.
Keep in mind, much like sports such as golf with leaderboards, dead-heat rules do apply. So if a pitcher you bet on ties with another pitcher, your odds are cut in half.
For today's slate, there are plenty of strikeout artists to pick from. At FanDuel, AL Cy Young favorite Shane McClanahan has the lowest odds at +420 as he and the Tampa Bay Rays face the Seattle Mariners.
Behind him is Freddy Peralta of the Milwaukee Brewers at +700 against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The only other pitcher with odds of +1000 or lower is Pablo Lopez of the Minnesota Twins against the Baltimore Orioles.
Action Network director of analytics Sean Koerner dives through MLB pitcher props regularly. The model shows significant value on two arms in particular today: the Houston Astros' Ronel Blanco against the Texas Rangers and the Washington Nationals' Josiah Gray against the Philadelphia Phillies.
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Blanco is listed at +2800 at FanDuel, but Koerner's number puts him at +1329. Similarly, Gray is listed at +3700 at FanDuel, but the model makes him +1861.
Both Blanco's and Gray's strikeout props individually are set at only 4.5, mostly because they have tough matchups against the Rangers and Phillies, respectively. But they offer plenty of upside with expected K rates, according the model, much higher than their actual K/9 this season. They both generate high swinging strike rates and offer high enough ceilings to potentially take down today's market.
Koerner's model makes nine strikeouts the most likely number to take down today's market, so neither would need 11+ Ks to cash this prop, making them more playable than normal.
Likewise, it's worth noting that McClanahan and another of today's favorites, Boston's James Paxton, left their most recent starts early, making them more of a risk. Also, today's Dodgers vs. Royals and Yankees vs. Cardinals games offer rainout risk, which would make intriguing pitchers such as Bobby Miller and Luis Severino more of a risk than usual.
Below, you can find Koerner's projections for the daily strikeout leader today, Friday, June 30th.