MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Padres vs. Reds

MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Padres vs. Reds article feature image

Via Matt Thomas/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Bogaerts #2 of the San Diego Padres hits a home run in the fifth inning against the Washington Nationals on June 23, 2023 at Petco Park in San Diego, California.

  • The San Diego Padres are short road favorites on Friday as they visit the surging Cincinnati Reds.
  • The conditions in Cincinnati will be favorable with the wind blowing out to left field, and the Padres get to face Graham Ashcraft, too
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down the matchup and shares his betting pick and analysis below.

Padres vs. Reds Odds

Friday, June 30
5:10 p.m. ET
Padres Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-110/ -110
Reds Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-110/ -110
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

The Padres enter this matchup on quite the skid. They have lost five straight games, and the losses include two to the Nationals and being swept by the Pirates.

Tonight, they'll continue their road trip as one of the hottest teams in baseball welcomes them. The Cincinnati Reds have had an incredible month of June as they've battled their way to the top of the NL Central.

While each of these teams enters this series trending in opposite directions, the ballpark, the weather and the pitching matchup will combine to make this game exciting, as it should be up for grabs at any time.

What's the best way to bet this matchup between the San Diego Padres and the Cincinnati Reds? Let's take a closer look to find out.

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San Diego Padres

Overall, the Padres' lineup has been a disappointment. They are hitting just .233 as a team and are 19th in xwOBACON, so their quality of contact is not telling a very different story despite their star power.

However, they are still a very dangerous team and have more than enough pop to explode in a matchup like this. San Diego will take advantage of playing in the Great American Ban Box this evening.

In addition to the Reds ballpark being hitter-friendly, the weather will also help as it's going to get up to 90 degrees by first pitch, and the wind will be blowing out toward left field.

They have each of those perks before even factoring that they will face Graham Ashcraft. This season has not gone to plan for Ashcraft, as he enters this start with a 7.17 ERA. He has been pummeled on multiple occasions, but surprisingly, one of his best outings came against this Padres team.

Back in May, Ashcraft threw six innings of one-run ball, but the big difference is that matchup was in San Diego at night. Given Ashcraft's struggles, this one will be a very different ball game.

Ready to place your bets? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook for the best markets on MLB and all of the day's games and events across the world of sports!

Cincinnati Reds

While I raved about the many factors that make this game a great matchup for the Padres, each of those still holds true for the Reds as well. I mentioned earlier that the Reds lineup has been hot in June, but would you believe that they have the second-most runs scored in the last 30 days?

They are only second to the Braves, who, ironically, ended the Reds' winning streak earlier this month. Getting back to this matchup, the Reds are in a spot to thrive at home as their park gives them the offensive boost they need.

Despite all the scoring and wins, they are still not a lineup that strikes fear in opposing pitchers. They are 26th in xwOBACON and have the second-worst Average Exit Velocity in the majors.

Unfortunately, it appears that this Reds lineup is due for some sizable regression in the future, and if it doesn't begin tonight, it will start soon.

Padres vs. Reds Betting Pick

If I haven't made it abundantly clear by now, this game has all the elements needed to be high scoring. This explains why the total is nearly as high as the one set for Coors Field today.

However, I only want one side of the total. The Reds are due to regress, and the Padres are a slumping team bound to break out. I want the team that has the chance to trend up in this matchup, so I'm backing the Padres to go over their team total.

Ready to place your bets? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook for the best markets on MLB and all of the day's games and events across the world of sports!

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