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MLB Odds & Picks for Padres vs. Rockies: Target This Machado Prop

MLB Odds & Picks for Padres vs. Rockies: Target This Machado Prop article feature image
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Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres.

  • The Padres and Rockies start their four-game series Monday night at Coors Field.
  • The Padres enter as -155 favorites on the road as they look to snap a two-game losing streak.
  • Nick Martin breaks down the matchup and explains why he sees value in a player prop.

Padres vs. Rockies Odds

Padres Odds -155
Rockies Odds +130
Over/Under 11.5
Time 8:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The San Diego Padres haves stumbled to a 3-7 record over their past 10 games, which has allowed the red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers to open up an eight-game lead atop the National League West.

The Padres will send Sean Manaea to the mound Monday, who has pitched to a modest 4.18 ERA throughout 88.1 innings this season.

Colorado Rockies pitcher Jose Urena has managed an ERA of 2.51 throughout 14.1 innings this season, but will be in tough against a tough Padres order at Coors Monday.

San Diego could be in a great spot for a big output Monday in a game with a total of 12, could that offer up some value with a player prop?

Offense Should Pick Up for the Padres

The Padres lineup may be relieved to see a more manageable starting pitching matchup and hitter-friendly ballpark Monday, as the Padres have faced a tougher than average set of matchups over their last three series.

The Padres’ dinged up batting order has managed a 98 wRC+ and a .303 wOBA over the past 30 days, but a matchup with a highly overachieving pitcher in Urena seems a good time to buy back in.

Manny Machado has struggled over the last three series himself, but has been solid versus right-handed pitching this season, with a .324 average and .512 SLG rate.

Machado has crushed off-speed pitches to a .784 slug rate this season, and has been very solid against the fastball with a .316 batting average, which should make him a very tough out versus Urena who throws fastball/changeup 75% of the time.


Jose Urena Likely to Regress for Rockies

Urena allowed an average exit velocity of 90.8 MPH last season, which was the 10th-highest mark in the league amongst starters with greater than 80 innings pitched and massive concern on route to his 5.81 ERA.

Urena has not fared significantly better in 2022 in that regard, and his actual ERA of 2.51 appears due for heavy regression, including an alarmingly high xSLG rate of .568.

For a guy who has been more successful this season, matchups at Coors Field should be the perfect place for heavy regression to occur, as his run-good on hard-hit balls should not last very long.

In particular Urena has allowed just one home run throughout his small sample of results in this 2022 campaign, but based upon his historic results and his still poor hard-contact numbers we can safely assumer more homers will be coming in short order.

Padres-Rockies Pick

Monday night could very well end up being yet another shootout at Coors, and I think we should most likely see the Padres manage a strong offensive output of five or more runs as they enter a matchup against Urena and a middling Rockies bullpen.

A total of 12 still looks about fair however, and the Rockies do offer a quietly formidable test to lefty Sean Manaea, and therefore I the most value looking towards a player prop revolving around a strong offensive day from the heart of the Padres order.

In particular Manny Machado matches up well versus Urena, and in a game where the heart of the Padres order should be consistently threatening, I see value backing Machado to end up with an RBI at -120, and I would play this down to -130.

Pick: Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI -120

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