Padres vs. Tigers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Sunday, July 23
Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove.
Padres vs. Tigers Odds
-105 / -115
-105 / -115
The third and final game of this interleague series gets underway Sunday morning with the AL Central's Detroit Tigers hosting the NL West's San Diego Padres.
San Diego looks to complete the sweep after winning Friday's contest, 5-4, and securing a 14-3 victory in last night's matchup. Will the Padres take care of business once again, or can Detroit end the series on a high note?
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Padres vs. Tigers betting pick and prediction.
Right-hander Joe Musgrove is slated to take the mound for the Padres and should be a good candidate to back in this matchup. Through 15 starts, Musgrove is 9-2 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
Not only are those surface-level stats strong, but his underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, hard-hit%, xERA/xwOBA, xSLG and Barrel percentage.
Specifically, we are going to back Musgrove in the strikeout department. Not only does he rank in the 52nd percentile or higher in both K% and Whiff%, but Musgrove is one of the best pitchers at making opposing hitters chase pitches, evidenced by his 98th percentile ranking in chase rate.
Musgrove has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his past three starts. This strikeout success is likely to continue against the Tigers.
You can find his strikeout prop at 6.5 at plus-money via PointsBet.
While Detroit continues to improve, it's still a below-average ball club. Entering this matchup, the Tigers sit in third place in the very weak AL Central, a position they find themselves in due to poor hitting.
Detroit ranks in the bottom three of the league in runs scored per game, BA, SLG and OPS. This lineup is also extremely susceptible to the punchout, ranking 26th in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Sunday's projected starting lineup, six of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 22% this season. We just saw Seth Lugo record seven strikeouts against the Tigers, and with all due respect, if he can do it, so can Musgrove.
Padres vs. Tigers Betting Pick
Musgrove has not faced Detroit since he was on Pittsburgh in 2019, so he hasn't faced most of these hitters. However, I would argue that's an advantage in the sense that it may take Detroit a few rotations through the order to figure him out.
By then, it may be too late given Musgrove's terrific strikeout numbers and underlying metrics. At plus-money, I will gladly back the right-hander to record seven or more strikeouts for the fourth straight start.