The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 1, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are favored by -140 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +119 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Phillies vs Diamondbacks Pick: Jesus Luzardo Under 18.5 Outs
My Phillies vs Diamondbacks best bet is for Luzardo to go under 18.5 outs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +123 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -129 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -149 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +120 |
- Phillies vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Phillies -129, Diamondbacks +120
- Phillies vs Diamondbacks over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Phillies vs Diamondbacks spread: Phillies -1.5 (+123), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-149)
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| Jesus Luzardo (LHP, PHI) | Stat | Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, AZ) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5 | W-L | 14-4 |
| 4.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 3.09 / 2.87 | ERA / xERA | 2.50 / 4.43 |
| 2.80 / 2.92 | FIP / xFIP | 3.70 / 4.34 |
| 22.8% | K-BB% | 10.1% |
| 48.4% | GB% | 39.4% |
| .302 | BABIP | .265 |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 103 | Location+ | 109 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Pick, Betting Analysis
Editor's Note: This is a transcript from Derek Carty's portion of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
For tonight's bout in Phoenix, I'm going a similar route to my pick for the Yankees vs Angels game.
Here, we have another one where it's a good pitcher in Phillies' Jesus Luzardo in a pretty good matchup against the Diamondbacks. The problem is, an 18.5 Out line is always going to catch my interest because it's increasingly harder to pitch into the seventh inning.
The Bat X is only projecting about 17 outs here, which is about a 75% chance that he goes under 18.5. I think we're getting the 18.5 because if you look at the game logs, he's actually done it in six of his last seven.
However, if you look at what he's done the whole season, he's actually gone under way more often. He's gone under in 15 of 27 games.
So this is one where the projection says "under" and the longer-term trend says "under." The recency, I believe, is jacking the line up. And I do not want to overreact to recent performances, so let's ride with his under here.
Pick: Jesus Luzardo Under 18.5 Outs
