The San Diego Padres host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 12, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Padres Prediction
- Phillies vs Padres picks: Phillies ML (-160) | Play to -165
My Phillies vs Padres best bet is Phillies ML (-160). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Padres Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 7.5 -103 / -117 | -164 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -133 | 7.5 -103 / -117 | +137 |
Phillies vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Stat | RHP Yu Darvish (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 3.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 2.17/ 2.21 | ERA /xERA | 4.91/ 2.77 |
| 2.49/ 2.54 | FIP / xFIP | 3.63/ 4.84 |
| 0.84 | WHIP | 1.64 |
| 27.9% | K-BB% | 11.1% |
| 40.2% | GB% | 50.0% |
| 114 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 105 | Location+ | 102 |
AUTHOR’s Phillies vs Padres Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Zack Wheeler continues to be remarkable. He's once again maintained an Expected Batting Average under .200 with elite performances in the walk and power categories, and best of all is that his strikeout rate has eclipsed 33% this season, which would shatter the best strikeout season of his career in 2021.
The right-hander has seemed to improve as the season's gone on, too. He went from posting a 2.25 ERA in May to a 0.58 ERA in June — and while his xBA crept up just over .200, he was forced to deal with a murderer's row of opponents with starts against the Cubs, Blue Jays, Mets, Astros and Padres.
Wheeler's now struck out 22 batters and worked 17 innings across his last two starts, yielding just one solo home run and no walks last week against the Reds. It's pretty tough to say anything about the All-Star, he's just damn good — and probably should win the Cy Young Award this year.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
We will now go from a man who has had a full first half to a man who's just beginning his season in Yu Darvish. The righty has finally rehabbed back close to full health, but lasted just 63 pitches in his last outing, which took him across 3 2/3 innings.
What was encouraging was the fact that Darvish, who's long had an issue with home runs, didn't allow one in his season debut. He allowed just three hits and struck out five, sporting a handsome 55.6% ground-ball rate to help him along his way.
Now, there is still a lot of late-career Darvish inside of this man. We can't expect him to pitch ground balls like this with the way the past few seasons have gone, and what's also slightly problematic is the fact that he walked three batters. Free passes haven't exactly been a glaring issue for Darvish, but they certainly have reared their ugly head at times over the last few seasons.
It's really a wait-and-see approach you've got to take with Darvish here. He was pretty bad in 2022 and 2023 despite decent counting stats, and in 2024 he looked much better. It's up in the air as to which Darvish we're going to get.
Phillies vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
Unfortunately, there's just not a ton we can point to this season when trying to predict how Darvish will look. What I do know is that this man, even when he's been on, has had an issue with limiting power — and his strikeout rate had been tanking which was most of the reason I was very sour on him.
Well, the Phillies don't strike out a ton, doing so in 22.6% of plate appearances in the last two weeks, and they've also combined that with a .157 Isolated Power. Darvish may have found five quick punchouts in his last start, too, but that did come against the whiff-happy Cincinnati Reds.
This game should be far different, and it should go the way of the Phillies. San Diego's offense continues to look unconvincing, owning just a .124 ISO in the last two weeks, and while it does do a good job of putting the ball in play, Wheeler's been able to comfortably pitch to fly balls inside his bandbox of a park. He'll fare just fine with a park upgrade and deliver a win to Philly.
Pick: Phillies ML (-160)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I like Phillies Moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I will not be betting on the run line tonight.
Over/Under
I'm also not betting on game totals.
