Phillies vs Dodgers Odds | Expert Pick, Prediction (Monday, May 1)
Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts.
- The Philadelphia Phillies have started to figure things out at the plate, and now they take on the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday night.
- Both starting pitchers — Tony Gonsolin (Dodgers) and Taijuan Walker (Phillies) — have shown concerning characteristics despite producing solid numbers.
- Check out Nick Martin's betting pick in his Phillies vs. Dodgers preview below.
Phillies vs Dodgers Odds
-120 / +100
-120 / +100
Relative to their high preseason expectations, the Phillies and Dodgers have both had disappointing starts to the 2023 MLB season. Both sides have shown better form of late, though, and are sporting 7-3 records over their last 10 games.
Tony Gonsolin will make his second start of the season for Los Angeles. He pitched to a surprisingly dominant 2.12 ERA in 2022 and came out of the gates strong allowing no earned runs over three innings against Pittsburgh. He will face off against veteran righty Taijuan Walker, who owns a 4.97 ERA in 25.1 innings this season.
See how I’m betting the Phillies vs. Dodgers series opener at Dodger Stadium in my preview below.
Offensively, the Phillies were not expected to play at a low level for long considering the talent on board.
As good teams tend to do, they’re seemingly figuring it out. Over the last 16 games, Philly has put up 4.56 runs per game with a wRC+ of 107 — the ninth-best mark in the league over that span.
There are still some concerns, such as the poor form of Trea Turner, but Philadelphia is stabilizing closer to what most expected at the plate. Bryce Harper is also set to return in the very near future.
Philadelphia has hit right-handed pitching quite well, in particular. It owns a 109 wRC+ this season with a .339 wOBA.
Walker exited his start Wednesday with right forearm tightness but appears good to go today after throwing a successful bullpen session Friday.
Walker’s results tailed off drastically after the All-Star break last season, posting a 4.80 ERA in 65.2 innings. A strong start followed by an awful back half has been a consistent theme for Walker the last two seasons, so you could argue that now is the time to back him.
However, his early form looks fairly middling. He has pitched to a 4.54 xERA and is striking out just 21.3% of batters faced while walking 13.0%. His stuff is rating out well, though, as he owns a 115 stuff+ rating and 5.15 QOPA in his initial five outings.
Tony Gonsolin seemed to defy logic last season with his stunning 2.14 ERA, which was earned with relatively middling results in a number of key predictive areas.
He came right out of the gates with more of the same in 2023. Gonsolin’s xERA from his first start came in at 6.68 with a BB/9 rate of 9.00. Gonsolin’s stuff does not rate overly well by any means. His splitter is his only elite pitch, and his stuff rated out only slightly above league average in 2022.
It continues to prove difficult to find how exactly Gonsolin is managing to find such elite results where it matters. At worst, his BABIP should rise this season, and he should see regression in terms of his strand rate. That would lead to far more modest results, but I believe the floor is quite low for Gonsolin.
The Dodgers lineup is starting to look relatively scary once again. James Outman and Miguel Vargas have both been difference-makers for a unit that ranks top-10 in runs per game.
Phillies vs Dodgers Betting Pick
Walker should be viewed as something of a fade candidate moving forward and will be in a tough matchup Monday. The Dodgers have hit right-handed pitching well again this season, and that should continue here.
Behind Walker lies a middling Phillies pen, and it’s easy to see how the Dodgers could put up a big number against that unit.
Gonsolin is an even more natural fade candidate and has the potential to put out drastically worse results in 2023.
Despite a slower start to the season, the Phillies have also hit right-handed pitching effectively. On top of that, their talented lineup is clearly starting to find its rhythm, and if anything, we should expect better splits moving forward.
A month from now, I think there’s a good chance a Walker/Gonsolin matchup would have a total of 9 at -125. We should be happy to take a chance with the over today at 8.5 and -115.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
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