Pirates vs Giants Predictions | MLB Odds, Pick (Sunday, April 28)

Sunday baseball means one thing: It's time for day baseball. Get ready for some afternoon baseball with my Pirates vs. Giants preview. Both teams are sitting around .500 entering the game, and will look to inch above .500 with a Sunday win.

Let's take a look at the best bet for this matchup below.

The Pirates' new ace, Jared Jones, will take the ball for the series finale. The only difficulty is how safe the Pirates are playing it with Jones, so don't expect more than six innings. Jones regularly hits triple digits on his fastball, which adds to his lofty strikeout numbers — punching out at least seven batters in all five outings. Jones enters his sixth start of the year with a 2.50 ERA in 29 innings with 39 strikeouts.

Once Jones departs, the issue is the Pirates' brutal bullpen, which makes their fans sweat nightly. At the back end of the bullpen, veteran lefty Aroldis Chapman leads baseball with a staggering 26.7% walk rate. Plus, David Bednar looks like a shell of himself, posting a 12 ERA along with four blown saves — more than all of last year. The bullpen woes is worth nothing in each and every Pirates game.

Pittsburgh's offense has also struggled, ranking bottom 10 in MLB in wRC+ and home runs. The Pirates' power outage is jarring. For reference, Joey Bart didn't begin the season with the team but is tied for the team lead with three home runs. There's no real big bopper in the Pirates lineup if Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and Jack Suwinski aren't hitting. Reynolds' .756 OPS looks elite compared to Cruz's .656 and Suwinski's .567.

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On the Giants' side, starter Keaton Winn is off to a great start, posting a 3.54 ERA in 28 innings with a 1.04 WHIP. Winn isn't pumping 100 mph fastballs like Jones, but he's a maestro at getting quick outs. Winn ranks in the 93rd percentile in ground-ball percentage, per Statcast. An uncommon antidote to Winn's attack is his splitter usage, throwing the pitch 43% of the time. Most pitchers want to throw their fastball the most, but the Giants hurler thinks otherwise.

The Giants' offense is nothing special. It's a mix of fourth- or fifth-best hitters in good lineups masquerading as the Giants' top hitters and a slew of platoon bats. Lead-off hitter LaMonte Wade Jr. leads the Giants with a 171 wRC+ and an outstanding 16% BB rate. He only bats against right-handed pitching, so expect Wade to make Jones work.

The Giants need more from their trio of offseason acquisitions: Jung Hoo Lee, Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman. Lee is hitting .279, but his OPS is a mediocre .709, while Soler and Chapman have made their mark as streaky hitters. The number of streaky hitters in San Francisco's lineup will lead to ebbs and flows.

There will be a stretch when the Giants' offense goes scorched earth for a few weeks, but also a few when they can't hit.

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Jones has become one of the best stories in baseball in 2024. People talked about Paul Skenes being the next ace in Pittsburgh, which should happen, but Jones is an ace in his own right. He's incredible, but the Pirates are somehow just 2-3 in his starts. However, the Pirates led the Mets on April 16 when Jones left the game before the bullpen imploded.

So, I'm not risking the thought of the Pirates' lousy bullpen ruining my bet and instead just riding the Jones experience until he's out of the game.

Pick: Pirates F5 ML