The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 12, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Cubs are favored by -125 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction
- Pirates vs Cubs Pick: Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 Singles (-140, BetMGM)
My Pirates vs Cubs best bet is Nick Gonzales to go over his singles total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Cubs Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +155 | 9 -111o / -102u | +105 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -190 | 9 -111o / -102u | -125 |
- Pirates vs Cubs moneyline: Pirates +105, Cubs -125
- Pirates vs Cubs over/under: 9 (-111o / -102u)
- Pirates vs Cubs spread: Cubs -1.5 (+155 ), Pirates +1.5 (-190)
Pirates vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Clay Holmes (RHP, CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-11 | W-L | 6-7 |
| 4.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 3.83/3.25 | ERA / xERA | 2.83/4.07 |
| 3.09/3.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.46/3.70 |
| 21.3% | K-BB% | 10.0% |
| 40.2% | GB% | 60.0% |
| .303 | BABIP | .247 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 107 | Location+ | 101 |
Pirates vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
The NL Central action rolls on at Wrigley Field as the Pittsburgh Pirates (74-74) attempt to bounce back following a lopsided 12-2 defeat against the Chicago Cubs (82-66) in Friday’s series opener.
The Cubs blew things open early on Friday, pounding out 16 hits to pad their position in the NL Wild Card hunt. Chicago will hand the ball to right-hander Clay Holmes. Holmes has enjoyed a solid campaign (6-7, 2.83 ERA), leaning heavily on his signature heavy sinker to induce weak ground-ball contact and limit extra-base damage.
Pittsburgh counters with ace Paul Skenes (10-11, 3.83 ERA, 181 Ks). While Skenes gives the Pirates a distinct edge on the mound to stem the tide, the offense will need to produce consistent base hits to break down Chicago's run prevention.
Pirates vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
PRO Projections highlight value on Pittsburgh second baseman Nick Gonzales to go Over 0.5 Singles.
Gonzales has put together an impressive offensive campaign, maintaining a high contact rate with an overall batting average over .300. While power hitters often rely on extra-base hits or home runs to clear prop totals, Gonzales’s approach at the plate is built around putting the ball in play to all fields. Projections model him for approximately 0.81 singles on Saturday, creating a clear statistical edge against standard line pricing.
Clay Holmes relies on his sinker to keep the ball inside the park, generating a ground-ball rate well above league average. That pitching profile aligns directly with this prop's target outcome: Heavy sinker/ground-ball pitchers limit home runs, driving hit distribution heavily toward single base hits through the infield gaps, and Gonzales's standard bat path allows him to stay on top of down-in-the-zone sinkers and spray grounders or line drives into single territory.
Gonzales continues to see consistent action in the middle-to-lower portion of Pittsburgh's lineup, ensuring 3 to 4 full plate appearances even in tough matchups. Facing a high-contact-inducing pitcher in Holmes, Gonzales will have multiple opportunities to cash this single hit prop.
Pick: Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 Singles (-140, BetMGM)
