The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 17, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
After splitting the first two games, the Pirates and Cubs will close this series with Carmen Mlodzinski and Javier Assad on the mound, respectively.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Pirates vs Cubs Prediction
- Pirates vs Cubs pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
My Pirates vs Cubs best bet is Under 7.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Cubs Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +170 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -210 |
Pirates vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) | Stat | RHP Javier Assad (CHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-7 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 4.20 / 4.25 | ERA / xERA | 9.00 / 7.35 |
| 3.76 / 3.93 | FIP / xFIP | 6.86 / 6.25 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | 2.25 |
| 12.9 | K-BB% | 4.8 |
| 43.0 | GB% | 41.2 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 104 | Location+ | 105 |
Pirates vs Cubs Preview
The Pirates offense has been one of the worst all season, and currently ranks next-to-last in wRC+ with an 81 rating, only ahead of the Rockies.
Also, Pittsburgh has the worst slugging percentage with .346 and the worst ISO with .114.
This is not a lineup that will strike fear into anyone and will allow teams such as the Cubs to take a risk with their starters, as is the case with Javier Assad today.
On the other side, the Cubs are going through a slump. They have scored more than three runs just once (with four) in their previous six games.
If we also take the wind as a factor, as our PRO's Wrigley Field Unders system does, we have good chances of cashing the under in this game.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
Focuses exclusively on Cubs home games, where wind direction is a major scoring variable.
When wind blows in or across (in or from sides) and total opens between 8–13, unders become highly valuable.
Wrigley is uniquely sensitive to weather due to its field orientation and no dome conditions, making it the premier ballpark for wind-based betting edges.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105, BetMGM)
