The Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 31, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on CINR.
The Pirates are favored by -139 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +115 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Reds Prediction
- Pirates vs Reds Pick: Reds ML (+115)
My Pirates vs Reds best bet is on Cincinnati to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Reds Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +121 | 8 -105o / -114u | -139 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 8 -105o / -114u | +115 |
- Pirates vs Reds moneyline: Pirates -139, Reds +115
- Pirates vs Reds over/under: 8 (-105o / -114u)
- Pirates vs Reds spread: Pirates -1.5 (+121), Reds +1.5 (-145)
Pirates vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Hunter Greene (RHP, CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-9 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 3.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.65 / 2.81 | ERA / xERA | 7.06 / 4.67 |
| 2.71 / 3.08 | FIP / xFIP | 3.20 / 3.08 |
| 24.7 | K-BB% | 23.4 |
| 39.7 | GB% | 24.1 |
| .303 | BABIP | .345 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 108 | Location+ | 95 |
Pirates vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
We have Paul Skenes on the mound for the Pirates and Hunter Greene for the Reds.
Greene has missed some time this season, so he fell down on the 30-day rankings. I have him 18th, and I have Skenes 15th.
The numbers are pretty comparable over their rolling samples. In fact, Greene actually has some of the better peripherals of late. In his last five starts, Greene has a 3.1 expected FIP, while Skenes has 3.3.
Skenes has the slight edge in SIERA, while Greene has the edge in strikeout minus walk rate, but it's all to say their numbers are very comparable, especially late.
Skenes has lost 200 points of spin off of his fastball since the season began. It started to come back up a little bit in his past two outings, but it's still nowhere near where it was in April and May, or even last year. A significant decrease in fastball spin rate.
I could say the same for Greene. Since his return from the IL, his fastball is also down about 80 points, but nowhere near the dramatic long-season decline that Skenes has had from start to start.
Greene is just a few starts removed from the IL stint, so it's not down nearly as significantly; that's why I'm not as concerned.
Again, the trend line of both pitchers has kind of just pushed them on the same level as one another. The rolling ranking has them within two spots of one another.
However, overall, this Reds offense actually projects the better power and patient lineup for me, and giving them the power upside in a low-scoring pitcher's duel game where we don't expect a lot of runs, certainly have to favor the team who is likelier to hit the home run.
Pirates vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
I make the Reds between -110 to -108 here. I would bet them at even money or better.
Of the two teams, I guess the Reds are the team you're more concerned about potentially trading pieces away. I've looked at the list of trade options, and it's largely starting pitchers.
Greene is actually a potential candidate, so go with the Reds moneyline but check first the pitchers listed.
Pick: Reds ML (+115, DraftKings)
