The Kansas City Royals host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 8, 2025. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSKC.
Yesterday, the Royals won 9-3 in the opener of this three-game series. Mitch Keller and Seth Lugo will start tonight for Pittsburgh and Kansas City, respectively.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Royals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Pirates vs Royals Prediction
- Pirates vs Royals picks: Under 8 (-118, BetMGM)
My Pirates vs Royals best bet is Under 8. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Royals Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -102o / -118u | +120 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -102o / -118u | -145 |
Pirates vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Mitch Keller (PIT) | Stat | RHP Seth Lugo (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-10 | W-L | 6-5 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 3.64 / 3.93 | ERA / xERA | 2.65 / 4.41 |
| 3.24 / 3.93 | FIP / xFIP | 4.16 / 4.03 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 13.0 | K-BB% | 14.0 |
| 46.0 | GB% | 39.6 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 101 | Location+ | 96 |
Pirates vs Royals Preview
Mitch Keller is on a good run: five straight starts with three or fewer runs allowed. Of course, when you're pitching for the Pirates, that does not necessarily translate to many wins — you can ask Paul Skenes about that.
Keller is coming off a great outing against the St. Louis Cardinals, giving up only one run and five hits across seven innings with seven strikeouts.
The Pittsburgh offense has been poor all season, but even by their standards, their current form is appalling. They suffered a shutout in three of their past six games and scored one, three and five runs on the other three.
They will have to deal with Kansas City starter Seth Lugo, who holds a 2.11 ERA in his past seven starts.
The Pirates are a significant reason why the under is recommended for tonight, but so is the Kansas City offense. The Royals are 27th in wRC+ with 83 and 28th in ISO with .127.
Even after yesterday's nine-run output, KC should not be a threat to Keller. Additionally, we have a weather angle for this game.
Pirates vs Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45 to 95 — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, ranging from 6 to 29%.
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 8 (-118, BetMGM)
