The St. Louis Cardinals (65-69) and Pittsburgh Pirates (59-75) will face off in the MLB today. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET The game will broadcast live on SportsNet PT.
St. Louis is a -123 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh is +101to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8.5 total runs.
Continue below for my Pirates vs Cardinals prediction and MLB picks for Thursday, August 28, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction
- Pirates vs Cardinals pick: Under 8.5 Runs
Our Cardinals vs. Pirates best bet is on the under total runs, with the best price currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Cardinals Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +161 | 8.5 -105o / -116u | +101 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -199 | 8.5 -105o / -116u | -123 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) | Stat | RHP Miles Mikolas (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 6-10 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.70/3.30 | ERA /xERA | 5.17/5.39 |
| 2.52/3.49 | FIP / xFIP | 5.01/4.85 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 15.0% | K-BB% | 9.2% |
| 51.9% | GB% | 39.8% |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 101 | Location+ | 107 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Preview, Picks
The St. Louis Cardinals look to even their four-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates after dropping back-to-back contests. Pittsburgh has taken Games 2 and 3, including a 2-1 win on Wednesday behind a clutch two-run single from Tommy Pham in the sixth inning.
Thursday’s finale features Braxton Ashcraft for the Pirates against veteran Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals.
The total sits at 8.5, and this game fits neatly into Evan Abrams’ “Steam Unders with Low OU Support” system. This angle identifies MLB regular season matchups (2019–2025) where sharp money has steamed the total down in the 8–10 run range, even as the betting public leans heavily toward the over.
With mild playing conditions and both teams coming off recent games landing close to the number (7–6, 8–3, 2–1), this contest checks all the filters: no extreme streaks, no weather anomalies, and sharp-vs-public disagreement in play.
Given Mikolas’ ability to suppress runs, the Pirates’ uneven offense outside of timely hits, and the systemic support for contrarian unders, the Under 8.5 emerges as the most valuable angle on the board.
Pirates vs Cardinals Best Bet
- Under 8.5 (-120, Fanatics)
Pirates vs Cardinals Betting Trends
