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PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop for Monday: Walker Buehler’s Strikeout Total Has Value

PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop for Monday: Walker Buehler’s Strikeout Total Has Value article feature image
Credit:

Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images. Pictured: Walker Buehler.

  • Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday as they take on the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • While Buehler has put together a solid campaign so far, his strikeout total may be a bit inflated.
  • Read on to see PropBetGuy's top MLB player prop for Monday.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Walker Buehler, Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Prop Walker Buehler Under 5.5 Ks
Matchup Pirates vs. Dodgers
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
Books Available DraftKings

Walker Buehler, one of the top hurlers in the game, is amid another ace-worthy campaign for the NL-leading Dodgers. The right-hander is 6-1 with a 2.91 ERA — and the Dodgers have won seven of Buehler’s nine starts.

While it’s never fun to fade a brand-name pitcher, there’s plenty of data to back the under.

First, Buehler has stayed under this line in seven of his nine starts, leading to a 19% strikeout rate — by far the lowest of his six MLB seasons (his previous low was last season’s 26%).

Digging deeper, Buehler’s spin rate is down significantly from last season, including a 200+ RPM drop on his 4-seam fastball, cutter and curveball. So, while his velocity has remained consistent, his called + swinging strike rate is down almost 4% from last season.

Replicating their 2021 performance, the Pirates don’t swing and miss much — their whiff rate is the third-lowest in baseball. And while the Pirates’ K% is above league-average, Buehler’s high in-zone swing percentage should elicit plenty of swings and contact.

It could get uncomfortable, just because Buehler has the potential to pitch deep into the game. However, the Pirates’ lefty-heavy lineup should help to keep his strikeout total down.

I have Buehler projected at less than five strikeouts tonight.

Pick:  Walker Buehler Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105 | Play to -115)

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