PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick for Thursday: How to Back Joe Musgrove vs. Giants (July 7)

PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick for Thursday: How to Back Joe Musgrove vs. Giants (July 7) article feature image

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Joe Musgrove Strikeouts

PropJoe Musgrove Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)
MatchupGiants vs. Padres
Time6:40 p.m. ET
Books Available

Poor Pirates fans. Not only has their team been one of baseball’s worst over the past few seasons, but when the Pittsburgh faithful looks around at baseball’s better starting pitchers, several of them began their careers as members of the Pirates. And after three middling seasons in Pittsburgh, Joe Musgrove has emerged as a Cy Young candidate in San Diego.

Through 14 starts this season, Musgrove is 8-2 with a 2.25 ERA. He’s rung up 92 strikeouts over his 92 innings, hitting this line in 8 of his 14 starts (including 4 of 6 at home).

Since coming over to San Diego before the 2021 season, the right-hander has used his breaking balls as his primary pitch and they’ve been virtually unhittable, with a .152 batting average against, a .192 xBA and a 35.5% whiff rate.

The Giants have been sputtering on offense of late and have a .673 team OPS over the past 30 days with the league’s third-highest strikeout rate (24.6%). San Francisco has also struggled all season against the slider (Musgrove’s best breaking ball, and most used pitch). Not only do the Giants rank 22nd as a team in wRC per 100 plate appearances, but 6 of the 9 likely starters tonight have at least a 30% whiff rate against the pitch.

I have Musgrove squarely at 7 strikeouts tonight. At plus odds, that makes this prop my favorite play of the day.

Pick: Joe Musgrove Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120) | Playable to +100

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