Reds vs Cubs Odds, Picks | MLB Betting Guide & Prediction
Pictured: Dansby Swanson. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
- The Cubs host the Reds on Friday afternoon, and our expert is expecting plenty of offense.
- Justin Steele vs. Hunter Greene is an enticing pitching matchup, but recent trends suggest the bats will still rule the day.
- Continue reading for D.J. James' breakdown and his Reds vs. Cubs best bet.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+135 | 8 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -175 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -157 | 8 -105/ -115 | -1.5 +138 |
Justin Steele could be well on his way to earning some Cy Young Award votes for the Chicago Cubs. The lefty has a 2.20 ERA and limits hard contact. However, he's set to face a Cincinnati Reds team that has fared well against southpaws this month and should be able to string together some baserunners.
The Reds will send Hunter Greene to the mound. Greene has struggled this month and the Cubs have fared well against right-handers in May, so this may not bode well for Greene.
Finally, both these bullpens have struggled lately, meaning there will be opportunities to score if the starters don't last long. The total should go over.
Cincinnati Reds
When it comes to racking up strikeouts, Greene excels at nearly a 31% clip. However, he has a 4.68 ERA against a 4.21 xERA on the season. Much of that is due to his struggles in May. Greene has a 6.95 ERA over four starts (22 innings) this month. His walk rate is still hovering around 9%, meaning it hasn't improved since last season. His average exit velocity ranks in the 21st percentile and his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 19th percentile. The Cubs should hit him hard.
The Cincinnati lineup has performed well when a lefty is on the mound this month, posting a 113 wRC+ with a .801 OPS. Over the past week, the Reds have a 12% strikeout rate, a 10.9% walk rate, a .996 OPS and a 169 wRC+ off of left-handed pitching. Steele is a different beast, but these numbers should play in the Reds' favor.
In relief, the Reds have had trouble this month. They have a team xFIP of 4.71 and only have three reliable options with a xFIP below 4.00 — and one of those is Alexis Díaz, who may not enter unless the game is close. This ‘pen could yield some runs to the Cubs in the middle innings.
Chicago Cubs
Steele has fallen a little bit in May. That's mainly because he had a 1.49 ERA in April. His May ERA is 3.24, and on the season he boasts a 2.20 ERA with a 3.02 xERA. Regression is coming, but he'll still be an ace. Steele only allows an average exit velocity of 84.6 mph and does a good job at missing the barrel, which is the key to his success.
The Cubs hitters have hammered right-handed pitching this week. They have a 129 wRC+ with a 13.8% walk rate and an .842 OPS. On the month, those numbers drop a bit, but the Cubs seem to be trending in a more positive direction and should be able to find success at home against Greene. The Cubs have nine active hitters above a .320 xwOBA.
Christopher Morel is unreal 🤯
▫️ 5 straight games with a home run
▫️ 9 home runs in 12 games this season(via @Cubs)pic.twitter.com/mD1FPu0TWM
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 24, 2023
In relief, the Cubs have faltered a little and have a team xFIP of 4.12. They have a few options behind Steele but may be stretched if he gets hit hard.
Reds vs. Cubs Betting Pick
This game has all the makings for a high total. Steele is a great pitcher, but Cincinnati has shown it can hit left-handers. The Cubs should hit Greene easily, and neither bullpen is particularly strong. With that being said, take the total from 8 (-110), and play it to 9 (-115).
Pick: Over 8 (-110) | Play to 9 (-115)
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