Reds vs Orioles Odds & Picks: How to Fade Luke Weaver

Reds vs Orioles Odds & Picks: How to Fade Luke Weaver article feature image

Pictured: Luke Weaver. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Reds vs Orioles Odds

Wednesday, June 28
7:05 p.m. ET
Reds Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-115 / -105
Orioles Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-115 / -105
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

The third and final installment of this interleague series gets underway Wednesday as the AL East's Baltimore Orioles host the NL Central's Cincinnati Reds.

Will the Orioles defend their home diamond? Or will the Reds pull off the upset?

Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Reds vs. Orioles betting pick and prediction.

Cincinnati Reds

Right-hander Luke Weaver is slated to take the mound for the Cincinnati Reds and should be a great candidate to fade. Through 12 starts this season, Weaver is 1-2 with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP.

His underlying metrics suggest positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%. Specifically, we're going to fade Weaver in the strikeout department.

He ranks in the 23rd percentile or lower in K%, Whiff% and Chase Rate. The right-hander possesses a five-pitch arsenal, but primarily relies on his four-seam fastball, a pitch that has gotten shelled all year.

Weaver has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in each of his past four starts. That trend is likely to continue against the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday.

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Baltimore Orioles

It has been a terrific season thus far for the Orioles, who are in second place in a loaded AL East.

Baltimore's loaded lineup has been a big reason for its success. The Orioles rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.

On top of that, they do a good job avoiding strikeouts. When facing right-handed pitching, Baltimore ranks 10th in K%.

Looking at Wednesday's projected lineup, four of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 23% this season.

Reds vs Orioles Betting Pick

No one in the Orioles starting lineup has faced Weaver, but he hasn't shown anything this season that gives me cause for concern.

In fact, he has allowed five or more earned runs in three of his past four starts and has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in each of those outings. Weaver's surface-level stats are poor, his underlying metrics are just as bad, and he'll be tasked with facing a very strong Baltimore lineup.

Usually on a short leash, Weaver has pitched six or more innings just once over his past eight starts.

Pick: Luke Weaver Under 4.5 Strikeouts

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