Rockies vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Pitching Depth Gives Road Underdog an Edge (Thursday, June 23)

Rockies vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Pitching Depth Gives Road Underdog an Edge (Thursday, June 23) article feature image

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Freeland

  • The Rockies and Marlins wrap up their series with a Thursday matinee in Miami.
  • The Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the mound while the Marlins counter with Braxton Garrett.
  • D.J. James shares his best bet below.

Rockies vs. Marlins Odds

Rockies Odds+110
Marlins Odds-130
Over/Under8.5 (+100/-120)
Time12:10 p.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Kyle Freeland and the Colorado Rockies wrap up a series against Braxton Garrett and the Marlins in Miami. Freeland has struggled this season and his peripherals are almost all below average, with the exception of his fastball spin rate and walk rate. Garrett, however, only flashed a semblance of being a reasonable starter against the Houston Astros when he pitched 5 2/3 strong innings on June 11. That said, the Marlins are abysmal against left-handed pitching. They rank second-to-last with a 68 wRC+. The Rockies, meanwhile, have a team wRC+ of 103. This is the difference in this game and reason to take the Rockies on the moneyline. There is not enough of a difference in the pitching for either of these teams. Colorado’s above average offense against lefties should propel the Rockies to victory.

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Colorado Rockies: Matchup sets up well for Freeland

Freeland has not had a good season. Luckily, the Marlins are only walking at a 7.8% clip off of southpaws in June — a clear edge for Colorado, as mentioned above.

The Marlins only have four players — Miguel Rojas, Jesús Aguilar, Nick Fortes and Jacob Stallings — who have a xwOBA over .330 off of left-handers as Joey Wendle and Brian Anderson are on the Injured List. The bottom of this lineup has not succeeded lately against lefties and Freeland should at least be able to hold his own. After all, he has pitched well in June with a 3.15 ERA, so hopefully that is a signal for a strong start here.

Tyler Kinney and Ty Blach are both on the Injured List, which means the Rockies will be without some pivotal relievers. Colorado has five other relievers with an xFIP under 4.00, so even if the bullpens are close, expect Freeland to go deeper into this game and save the ‘pen some relief duties.

Miami Marlins: Lack of Bullpen Depth Could be an Issue

Braxton Garrett has had a rough go of it. He has faced some great offenses in the San Francisco Giants, the Houston Astros and the New YorkMets. It is not like the Rockies are an offensive juggernaut, but they have pretty capable bats to match up with Garrett. Kris Bryant is on the Injured List, but Colorado has five hitters with a xwOBA over .340. The Rockies have more depth in their starting lineup, so Garrett will have some strenuous innings. Ryan McMahon is a name to watch, since he boasts a .517 xwOBA with a 91.7 mph Average Exit Velocity off of lefties in June.

The Marlines have Cole Sulser on the IL, but the rest of the bullpen is healthy. They have a similar bullpen to the Rockies, but the issue here is Garrett will not go as deep into this game as Freeland because of the offense he is facing. This could present some problems for Manager Don Mattingly and the Marlins' bullpen depth as they used six relievers on Tuesday night. Miami will be short-handed, which should give the Rockies another leg up.

Rockies-Marlins Pick

Kyle Freeland is no Cy Young contender, but he has strung together a few promising starts and won't issue many free passes. Braxton Garrett is still raw and given the major discrepancy between how these teams have hit lefties of late, the Rockies have the edge. Freeland should be able to log at least five innings and give the game over to a fresher bullpen. Garrett will not have that luxury. Take the Rockies at +110 and play them to -130. Colorado is the better hitting team with more pitching alternatives than the Marlins.

Pick: Colorado Rockies +110 | play to -130

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