Rockies vs Nationals Odds, Pick, Prediction | How to Bet Against Patrick Corbin
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Corbin.
Rockies vs. Nationals Odds
The first installment of this three-game series gets underway Monday evening with the NL East's Washington Nationals hosting the NL West's Colorado Rockies.
These clubs last met at the beginning of April in Colorado, with each team claiming two of the four games for a series split. Will Washington begin this series on a high note, or can Colorado pull off the upset on the road?
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Rockies vs. Nationals betting pick and prediction for Monday night.
It's yet another disappointing season for the Rockies, who possess a 39-60 record and sit in the basement of the NL West. While they're bad in pretty much every aspect of the game, hitting away from Coors Field has been especially difficult.
On the road this season, Colorado ranks in the bottom third of the league in BA, SLG, OPS and wOBA. This lineup is also extremely susceptible to the strikeout, ranking last in the league in K% when facing left-handed pitching.
With that said, this game presents a solid opportunity to figure some things out offensively against a struggling left-hander in Patrick Corbin.
Looking at Monday's projected starting lineup, five of Colorado's nine hitters possess a K% south of 22% this season.
Corbin is slated to take the mound for the Nationals and could be a nice fade candidate in this matchup. Corbin owns a 6-10 record with a 4.90 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 20 starts.
Not only are those surface-level stats poor, but his underlying metrics are even worse. Entering this contest, the left-hander ranks in the 17th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
Specifically, we're going to fade Corbin in the strikeout department. This season, he ranks in the 11th percentile or lower in both K% and Whiff%.
You can find his strikeout prop at 4.5 via FanDuel. Corbin has recorded four or fewer punchouts in eight of his past 13 starts.
Rockies vs Nationals Betting Pick
Corbin's inability to rack up strikeouts is likely to continue against the Rockies. In 89 career plate appearances against Corbin, this current Colorado lineup possesses a 20.2 K%.
Yes, the Rockies are also terrible, but that's why we're catching plus-money on Corbin's under at 4.5.
In a battle between two struggling entities, I'll take the plus-money on an unreliable Corbin.