Royals vs Blue Jays Prediction | MLB Odds, Moneyline Pick
(Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) Pictured: Cole Ragans.
Royals vs Blue Jays Odds
| Kansas City Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +120 |
| Toronto Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -140 |
The Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays have flipped roles this season. A few years ago, many saw Toronto (15-15) as an exciting young team that could compete for multiple AL pennants. Instead, many of its younger pieces have faltered, and now the Royals (17-13) — led by Bobby Witt Jr., Cole Ragans and others — look like the surging young team.
Royals vs Blue Jays odds have the Blue Jays as -140 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. The starting pitching matchup is one of the best on the Tuesday slate, as Ragans takes on Jose Berrios, who is 4-1 with a minuscule 1.23 ERA.
Let's take a look at Tuesday's matchup and get into my Royals vs Blue Jays prediction.
On the mound for the Royals is fireballing lefty Cole Ragans, who has blossomed into a bonafide ace in Kansas City. Ragans' 3.90 ERA isn't eye-popping, but his 2.25 FIP and 3.22 xFIP should lead to better future results. The only reason his ERA is close to four is the Orioles dropping seven runs in 1.2 innings. In all five of Ragans' other starts this season, he allowed three or fewer runs, including zero runs in two outings.
Ragans bounced back nicely in his last start against the Blue Jays, tossing five innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts in a rain-shortened loss for the Royals. Command was an issue for Ragans, who walked three batters — tied for his highest mark of the season. It feels like he either walks nobody or tallies multiple walks — and nothing in between.
On the other hand, the Royals' lineup is a two-man show. The story of Salvador Pérez's mid-30s revival is in full effect, posting a 177 wRC+, while Bobby Witt Jr. looks like an MVP candidate with a 149 wRC+ and elite defense at shortstop. Vinnie Pasquantino is the only other Kansas City batter with a wRC+ higher than 100. It's hard to buy into the Royals making a deep playoff run without the secondary bats making seismic improvements.
The Blue Jays' bats simply didn't appear in the previous Kansas City series. That's becoming a lengthier and more concerning trend for a once-promising team with a pair of youngsters — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette — who are slowly looking like busts.
Guerrero's 48 home run season, when he finished second in MVP voting to Shohei Ohtani, feels like an anomaly. Guerrero posted a solid 118 wRC+ last year, but he looks lost at the plate. He owns a 98 wRC+ thus far with a career-high 21% K-Rate, up from 14.7% last year. He is clearly pressing and turning into a losing player for the Blue Jays.
Bichette, meanwhile, is on the worst run of his extensive league career. Since coming up in 2019, Bichette has done nothing but hit. Now, he is hitting .210 with a .263 OBP and ghastly 65 wRC+. Bichette's big thing is hitting for average, but he's not hitting at all.
While the younger phenoms aren't hitting, old reliable Justin Turner is the Blue Jays' best hitter through a month. Turner cracked a pair of homers in the win over the Royals on Monday, and he now owns a team-best 150 wRC+. Turner has brought an invaluable presence to this Blue Jays team with his leadership and hitting ability.
Opposing Ragans is the highly-priced Jose Berrios, who signed a 7-year, $131 million contract after the Jays traded for him three seasons ago. After a couple shaky years, Berrios is finally turning into the top end of the rotation arm the Blue Jays expected him to be. He boasts an impressive 1.23 ERA over 36.2 innings.
The Berrios resurgence is impressive, but it may not last. Despite the low ERA, the underlying numbers suggest Berrios will come down to earth — posting a 3.86 FIP and 4.16 xFIP with a career-low strikeout rate and his highest walk rate since 2020. I'm looking to hop off the Berrios train before it swerves off the tracks.
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Royals vs. Blue Jays
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'll back Ragans and the Royals moneyline here.
Ragans is putting together an outstanding season, and I already discussed the Blue Jays' hitting woes. The Royals likely need a strong six or seven innings from Ragans to shorten the bridge to John Schreiber and James McArthur in the eighth and ninth innings. Schreiber and MacArthur are the only two trustworthy arms in the Royals' pen, so length from Ragans is critical.
Pick: Royals Moneyline
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