The Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres on June 30, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Cubs are favored by -154 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +127 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 11.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Cubs Prediction
- Padres vs Cubs Pick: Under 11.5
My Padres vs Cubs best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Cubs Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +120 | 11.5 -101o / -120u | +127 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -146 | 11.5 -101o / -120u | -154 |
- Padres vs Cubs moneyline: Padres +127, Cubs -154
- Padres vs Cubs over/under: 11.5 (-101o / -120u)
- Padres vs Cubs spread: Cubs -1.5 (+120 ), Padres +1.5 (-146)
Padres vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| JP Sears (LHP, SD) | Stat | Matthew Boyd (LHP, CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.18 / 5.25 | ERA / xERA | 5.02 / 4.28 |
| 4.69 / 4.77 | FIP / xFIP | 2.61 / 3.16 |
| 12.0% | K-BB% | 20.7% |
| 29.4% | GB% | 40.8% |
| .235 | BABIP | .365 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 96 | Location+ | 108 |
Padres vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
Editor’s Note: This written pick is a transcription from today’s episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
I hate betting these Wrigley Field weather totals.
The weather is expected to be so extreme, not just yesterday, but for the ensuing four or five days.
I think books were extra wise to the fact and probably jacked these numbers up a little bit higher.
The total was too high for me, making this closer to around 10.5.
I'd bet the under 11 to -120 here. Last night, I got under 11.5 at minus 115 and that worked out well.
It’s the second start for JP Sears, who got absolutely lit up in the minors, though he looked okay in his start against the Braves.
In the sixth inning, I may feel pretty good about these bullpens being able to hold this game to four runs or fewer over the final three innings.
There's just enough strikeout stuff, especially in the Padres bullpen, to neutralize the Cubs late. I’m a little bit more worried about a shaky Cubs bullpen going up against a Padres offense that has a decent amount of contact.
The Padres are one of my lowest-rated power teams, while the Cubs have much more power.
These are two great defensive teams as well, so I’ll make this to 10.25.
The Cubs have a big starting pitching edge, while San Diego holds a big bullpen edge. I’ll also give the Cubs’ lineup a slight edge, but not enough to push it to either side.
So let’s ride with the under to -120.
Pick: Under 11.5 (-120)
