Saturday MLB Props Odds, Picks: Bets for Faedo & Webb (June 25)
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Faedo.
- Doug Ziefel uses the Action Labs Props Tool to break down his two favorite MLB prop bets for Saturday's slate.
- He's eying plays on two pitchers tonight: Logan Webb and Alex Faedo.
- Check out how he's backing them and his analysis below.
We have another massive Saturday slate on our hands, and to get this weekend off on the right foot, I've pinpointed two starters who are in great spots tonight. So let's find out who they are and how we're betting them.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Logan Webb to Record a Win: Yes (+100)
| Reds vs. Giants | Giants -245 |
| First Pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: | DraftKings |
The Reds managed to pull off the upset last night in game one of this series, but the odds of it happening again tonight are not in their favor. Logan Webb will get the ball for San Francisco tonight, and he has been excellent this season. He enters with a 6-2 record while holding a 3.26 ERA.
Webb has proven to be one of the best sinkerballers in the majors as he has an elite 58 percent ground ball rate. In addition, unlike other sinkerballers, he generates a great deal of soft contact as he ranks in the top-40 percent of the league in Average Exit Velocity.
He's facing a Reds team that is free-swinging as they have the 12th-highest Strikeout Rate against righties as well as the 17th-lowest Walk Rate. Webb should rack up quick outs and pitch deep enough to qualify for a victory. He's only gone fewer than five innings in two of his 14 starts this year, so his odds of recording a win should be much higher.
Pick: Yes +100
Action Labs Grade:
Alex Faedo Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-165)
| Tigers vs. Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks -155 |
| First Pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line: | DraftKings |
Florida product Alex Faedo has not exactly been a strikeout machine in his young career, as he's only recorded 35 strikeouts in 44 innings pitched. However, tonight he'll have an excellent matchup as he takes on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Arizona enters this matchup with the fourth-highest Strikeout Rate against right-handers in the majors. We have seen Faedo rack up punchouts against teams with similar Strikeout Rates to Arizona.
He's gone under this total in four of his nine starts, but three of them came against Cleveland and Boston, which are two of the best teams in the league at putting the ball in play. In two starts against Pittsburgh and Oakland, we saw Faedo total 14 strikeouts in just 10 innings of work, and the Diamondbacks are right in between those two clubs in terms of Strikeout Rate.
Faedo should cruise over this number, and the market agrees with me as it has already begun to tick up to 4.5 in some spots. We should see him pitch near his ceiling in this outing, so 4.5 has plenty of value as well.
Pick: Over 3.5 -165 (Play to 4.5)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
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