The Cleveland Guardians host the Seattle Mariners on August 29, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ROOT Sports NW.
This weekend series begins with George Kirby on the mound for the Mariners and Logan Allen opposing him for the Guardians.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mariners vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mariners vs Guardians Prediction
- Mariners vs Guardians pick: Under 8 (-120)
My Mariners vs Guardians best bet is Under 8 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Guardians Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8 100o / -120u | -160 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8 100o / -120u | +135 |
Mariners vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP George Kirby (SEA) | Stat | LHP Logan Allen (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 7-10 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 4.05 / 3.78 | ERA / xERA | 4.35 / 4.64 |
| 3.39 / 3.48 | FIP / xFIP | 4.64 / 4.84 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.43 |
| 18.0 | K-BB% | 8.2 |
| 44.9 | GB% | 42.6 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 112 | Location+ | 97 |
Mariners vs Guardians Preview
The Guardians have had a terrible offensive season, ranking 28th in wRC+ with an 84 rating this season, but in August, they are even worse, sitting dead last with 63.
They will have to face George Kirby tonight. The Mariners starter is coming off a great outing against the Athletics, giving up just one run and four hits in six complete innings.
After a couple of rough outings to begin the season, Kirby has been his usual self with a 3.31 ERA in his last 15 starts.
The Mariners offense, on the contrary, has been productive in 2025, sitting seventh in wRC+, but they have performed slightly worse when facing left-handed pitchers, such as Cleveland's starter Logan Allen, ranking 10th against them.
Seattle has also seen a slight decline in run production. They are currently placed 14th in wRC+ in August.
Our Bet Labs recommendation adds a weather angle to bet the under in this game.
The system titled "Wind Whisper Unders" is built for MLB totals where weather and market signals align quietly but consistently toward the under.
It targets regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 where the closing total falls between 7 and 10 runs, a middle range that allows for variance but avoids extremes.
This strategy focuses on games with a specific weather profile: wind blowing from the left, in from the right, or straight in, with speeds between 3 and 15 miles per hour. Combined with moderate temperatures between 30 °C and 70 °C, these environmental conditions help suppress deep fly balls without overly skewing the market.
Line movement also plays a role. The total must have dropped by up to 2.5 runs from open to close, signaling steady downward pressure from sharper bettors. Importantly, the public is not fully behind the under —support remains modest, falling between 1 and 55. This indicates market resistance and helps ensure the number isn’t over-adjusted.
By aligning downward line moves, cooling weather patterns, and under-the-radar betting splits, the system consistently identifies games where offense is subtly but significantly less likely to break out.
Pick: Under 8 (-120, BetMGM)
Mariners vs Guardians Betting Trends
