The Detroit Tigers (59-35) host the Seattle Mariners (48-45) on Friday, July 11, 2025. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mariners vs Tigers prediction and prop pick for Friday night below.
Mariners vs Tigers Prediction, Prop Pick
- Mariners vs Tigers pick: Luis Castillo Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115, DraftKings)
My Mariners vs Tigers best bet is Luis Castillo Over 2.5 earned runs allowed. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Tigers Odds, Lines
| Seattle Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 7 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Detroit Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 7 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Mariners vs Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
| Luis Castillo (SEA) | Stat | Tarik Skubal (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L | 10-2 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.7 |
| 3.31/4.58 | ERA / xERA | 2.02/2.30 |
| 3.90/4.18 | FIP / xFIP | 1.87/2.28 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 0.81 |
| 12.8 | K-BB% | 30.7 |
| 45 | GB% | 41.9 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 117 |
| 104 | Location+ | 107 |
Mariners vs Tigers Betting Preview
Mariners Betting Preview
The Seattle Mariners come into this series off a devastating loss to the Yankees.
Bryan Woo had a no-hitter going into the eighth inning while the Mariners led 5-0. Incredibly, Woo would lose the no-hitter, and the flood gates would open as the Yankees would rally to tie the game in the ninth before winning in the bottom of the 10th.
Now, Seattle is tasked with trying to pick itself back up and start fresh, but that is going to be much easier said than done, as they have to contend with Tarik Skubal.
The Mariners have been solid against lefties, sporting a 107 wRC+, but it's clear Skubal is far from your average lefty.
Seattle's Achilles' heel in this matchup will be the strikeout. Not only does Skubal rank in the 95th percentile among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate, but the Mariners rank 23rd among MLB lineups in strikeout rate against southpaws.
Letdown spot aside, it will be tough for the Mariners to get the bats going in this one.
Tigers Betting Preview
On the flip side of this matchup, the Tigers have remained in cruise control as they have won seven of their last 10 games and have a commanding 13-game lead in the AL Central.
The most significant difference for the Tigers this season has been the progression of their lineup.
They not only have a great pitching staff, led by the best pitcher in the majors, but they now have consistent offensive output against lefties and righties.
They will face veteran right-hander Luis Castillo on Friday.
Castillo has begun to regress in his age-32 season. His 4.58 xERA and 4.18 xFIP are alarming, and those expected numbers stem from a great deal of hard contact made against him. His hard hit rate and barrel rate allowed are at career high marks by a wide margin.
Additionally, Castillo's stuff isn't playing well this season, as his strikeout rate is down four percent.
He is due for more regression, and we should see it on Friday against a formidable Tigers lineup.
Mariners vs Tigers Prediction, Prop Pick
There are multiple viable angles in this matchup, but the one most glaring to me is the Tigers' lineup against Luis Castillo.
Castillo has been skating on thin ice this season and is due to get knocked around.
Detroit is the team to make that happen, as they've been solid against righties.
The Tigers are heavily favored to score at least four runs tonight, and given how strong the Mariners' bullpen has been, we should expect most of that scoring to come in the first six innings or so against Castillo.
Back Detroit by fading Castillo and taking the Over on his earned runs allowed prop.
Pick: Luis Castillo Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115, DraftKings)
Moneyline
There are better ways to back Detroit than laying its heavy moneyline price.
Run Line (Spread)
The run line is another good way to back Detroit on Friday, given its bullpen rest advantage.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
