Cardinals vs Padres Prediction, Pick, Odds for Friday

Cardinals vs Padres Prediction, Pick, Odds for Friday article feature image
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Photo by Denis Poroy-Imagn Images. Pictured: Nick Pivetta

The San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 1, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSMW.

Find my MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.

The Padres have a five-game winning streak going and will want to get back at the Cardinals after losing a series to them last week in St. Louis.

Matthew Liberatore and Nick Pivetta will start tonight for the Cardinals and Padres, respectively.

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My Cardinals vs Padres Prediction

  • Cardinals vs Padres pick: Under 7.5

My Cardinals vs Padres best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.


Cardinals vs Padres Odds

Cardinals Logo
Friday, August 1
9:40 p.m. ET
FDSMW
Padres Logo
Cardinals Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1.5
-150
7.5
-110o / -110u
+150
Padres Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5
+125
7.5
-110o / -110u
-185
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
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Cardinals vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers

LHP Matthew Liberatore (SL)StatRHP Nick Pivetta (SD)
6-8W-L10-3
1.8fWAR (FanGraphs)3.0
4.04 / 4.30ERA / xERA2.81 / 3.72
3.55 / 4.08FIP / xFIP3.17 / 3.57
1.27WHIP0.99
13.3K-BB%20.5
40.8GB%34.2
97Stuff+96
101Location+110

Cardinals vs Padres Preview

The Cardinals lost their last two games against the Miami Marlins without producing a single run. Going back to Monday's game, when they last scored, they're on a 19-inning dry spell.

In July, St. Louis ranked 25th in wRC+ (93), 29th in slugging (.367) and 23rd in average (.234).

The Cards will face the Padres' Nick Pivetta, who has a 1.70 ERA in his last seven starts. In July alone, he had a 0.85 WHIP and a 1.17 ERA.

Pivetta also pitches better at home, with a 2.07 ERA this season at Petco Park compared to his 3.67 ERA on the road.

San Diego's last two games hit the under, and this one might continue the trend.

Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore has better away numbers, with a 3.65 ERA as a visitor.

This aligns with the weather angle offered by Bet Labs, with the under as the recommended pick for tonight.

MLB Icon
Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Public Fades Humidity = Unders
the average humidity is between 45% and 95%
the home team's 5 Game over percentage is between 0% and 40%
the temperature is between 54 and 97 degrees
the wind direction is From Right or Left To Right or From Left or Right To Left or In or None
the o/u change from open to close is between -1 and 0
the over/under % is between 6% and 29%
the game was played during the 2025 or 2024 or 2023 or 2022 or 2021 or 2020 season
betting on the Under
the game is played during the Regular season
$8,419
WON
291-187-19
RECORD
61%
WIN%

This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45 to 95 — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.

Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.

In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.

The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, between six and 29.

These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-110, Fanatics)

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Cardinals vs Padres Betting Trends


Cardinals vs Padres Weather


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