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Tigers vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Merrill Kelly Gives Arizona an Early Edge Over Detroit (Friday, June 24)

Tigers vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Merrill Kelly Gives Arizona an Early Edge Over Detroit (Friday, June 24) article feature image
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Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Merrill Kelly.

  • The Diamondbacks are home favorites on Friday night against the Tigers.
  • Both teams coming off of a three-game losing streak, so which side will emerge victorious in this late-night matchup?
  • Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Tigers Odds +140
Diamondbacks Odds -165
Over/Under 8 (-120/+100)
Time 9:40 p.m. ET
TV Apple TV+
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Diamondbacks will host the Tigers Friday night for some interleague play with each team looking to snap a three-game losing streak.

Arizona will send Merrill Kelly to the mound, who has been steady throughout the season over 78 innings pitched with an ERA of 3.46.

He will duel with Rony Garcia, who has been anything but steady while accumulating an ERA of 4.97 over 38 innings this season.

Will Arizona find some success against Garcia, or is he due for regression?

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Garcia and the Tigers Looking for Momentum

Garcia’s notably high ERA of 4.97 actually comes with what appears to be a fair bit of luck, and it actually seems clear the 24 year-old righty could fare much worse moving forward.

Garcia holds an xERA of 7.67, with a shocking Barrel Rate of 20% and an xSLG of .684.

Garcia’s holds one of the league’s lowest QOPA of 3.76, which suggests it’s far from surprising to see how much hard contact opponents are finding off him this season.

Garcia has allowed an Average Exit Velocity of 93 MPH, which is the highest among starters in the big leagues who have pitched at least 32 innings.

Detroit will field what is likely the league’s worst offense Friday, and even if top prospect Riley Greene continues making a difference, this unit is simply terrible.

The Tigers have hit to a wRC+ of just 68 this season, with a wOBA of .261 versus right-handed pitching.

In June the Tigers have not fared much better offensively and have batted to a wRC+ of 72 with a .268 wOBA.

Kelly Gives the Diamondbacks an Advantage

The Diamondbacks have not fared much better offensively of late than the Tigers, with lowly 78 wRC+ and 278 wOBA marks in June.

However, on top of what still appears to be a slight edge offensively,  Merrill Kelly is offering the Diamondbacks a massive edge in starting pitching for this contest.

Kelly has pitched to a very respectable 3.60 xERA this season, which has come with a very strong QOPA of 4.60.

Kelly has also pitched to a home ERA of 3.15, including a stellar performance in his last start against a powerful Twins lineup in which he allowed just one earned run over seven innings of five-hit ball.

Tigers-Diamondbacks Pick

Detroit’s anemic offense will start this contest at a massive disadvantage, as Arizona is fielding a considerably more effective starter with Kelly.

Even if Garcia manages to hang in better than expected, we may not see Detroit manage much of an output early from Kelly. At -130 for the D-Backs to cover -0.5 in the first five innings, I certainly feel there is some value looking for Arizona to extend Garcia’s struggles.

Pick: Diamondbacks -0.5 First 5 Innings -130 (Play to -140)

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