Tigers vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Target the Over/Under in New York (Sunday, June 5)

Tigers vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Target the Over/Under in New York (Sunday, June 5) article feature image

Steven Ryan/Getty Images. Pictured: Giancarlo Stanton.

  • The Yankees host the Tigers for the third of final game of this weekend series.
  • The Yankees clearly have the better roster, but our analyst is targeting the total in this matchup.
  • Tony Sartori shares his best bet below.

Tigers vs. Yankees Odds

Tigers Odds+170
Yankees Odds-200
Over/Under7.5 (-115/-105)
Time11:35 a.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the third and final matchup of this three-game series as the AL East's New York Yankees host the AL Central's Detroit Tigers. This is the sixth meeting between these two teams this season and the under has hit in three of the first five outings.

Will we get another low-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the run production pick up this time around?

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Detroit Tigers: Matchups Don't Look Good for Garcia

Right-handed pitcher Rony Garcia is projected to get the start for the Detroit Tigers in this matchup and he could be a good fade candidate. This season, Garcia is 0-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.000 WHIP.

Positive regression should not be coming anytime soon for Garcia as he possesses a .398 xwOBA, .286 xBA and .628 xSLG. The xSLG figure is especially troubling against a Yankees lineup known for its power.

After coming out of the bullpen to start the year, Garcia has moved into the starting rotation and has made two starts. In his last start, the over hit as he allowed six runs on seven hits over five innings.

Garcia has one appearance against the Yankees this season, a game in which he came out of the bullpen. In that appearance, Garcia recorded just one out while allowing one walk and one earned run.

New York Yankees: Is Regression Coming for Montgomery?

As I hinted above, Garcia's troubling metrics could prove to be costly against a dangerous New York lineup. When facing right-handed pitchers, the Yankees rank 13th in the league in BA, seventh in SLG, fifth in OPS and fifth in wOBA since May 1st.

This lineup will most likely need to carry the weight on Sunday as left-hander Jordan Montgomery is slated to take the mound for New York. Through 10 starts this season, Montgomery is 1-1 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.013 WHIP.

While these are strong surface-level numbers, Montgomery's metrics suggest regression is looming. Montgomery possesses a .324 xwOBA, .274 xBA and .427 xSLG.

The over has hit in each of Montgomery's past three starts.

Tigers-Yankees Pick

While I am playing the over in this game, it is more so a backing of the Yankees. You could lay the juice on the Yankees moneyline, take the New York run line, or even take their team total over.

That being said, I am playing the over because I think Montgomery is going to run into regression soon. Even if that is not the case in this game, he just needs to allow a couple because the Yankees should be able to tee off on Garcia.

I would not play the over in this game if the total moves to eight before first pitch.

Pick: Tigers/Yankees o7.5 (-115) | Play up to (-125)

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