For my Tuesday MLB player props, I'll be looking into two hitters in Kerry Carpenter and Joey Loperfido along with Luis Severino, who will be facing the Nationals.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 5.
MLB Player Props for August 5, 2025
- Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125, Fanatics)
- Luis Severino Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
- Joey Loperfido Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115, BetMGM)
Twins vs Tigers Player Props: Great Matchup For Carpenter
On Sunday Night Baseball, the Tigers had a difficult assignment facing Cristopher Sanchez, who worked eight shutout innings. It also took them a while to get going last night as they fell behind 2-0 and did not score until the sixth inning. After tying the game and then re-tying in the sixth inning, Kerry Carpenter put the Tigers ahead for good with a two-run home run.
For Carpenter, it was his 19th home run of the year. He will match his career-high and notch 20 home runs for the second time in his career the next time he leaves the yard. Since returning from the IL, he is hitting .400 with two doubles, three home runs, and six runs batted in.
Carpenter did not start Sunday's game as he often does not against left-handed starters. However, he gets a right-hander tonight with Zebby Matthews starting for Minnesota. Matthews has two doubles and two home runs against left-handed batters in 68 at-bats. However, he also has a 5.67 ERA that elevates to 6.63 on the road. He typically goes five innings or less, so if Carpenter does not get to him, he should have at least one at-bat against a Minnesota bullpen that is reeling after the trade deadline.
Among qualified pitchers, Matthews ranks in the 28th percentile in barrel rate. That sets up a great matchup for Carpenter, who ranks in the 92nd percentile in xSLG and 86th percentile in barrel rate. His power has helped him record two total bases in six of his last seven starts, and I expect that trend to continue tonight.
Athletics vs Nationals Player Props: Back Severino on the Road
For Luis Severino, the numbers this year have not been pretty, both traditionally or on StatCast. He is just 5-11 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this season. However, on the road, those numbers change drastically. He is 4-2 with a 3.03 ERA in 10 road starts away from the hitter-friendly park in West Sacramento.
Tonight, Severino gets the Nationals, who have lost five of their last six games and score three runs or fewer in four of those games. It does not help matters for the Nationals that All-Star outfielder James Wood has been mired in a month-long slump, slashing .128/.227/.192 with just one home run in that span. Typically, if you shut down Wood and fellow Nationals young star CJ Abrams, you can keep them off the scoreboard. Combined, they are 0-for-10 with three strikeouts against Severino.
Their teammates have not fared much better as they are 6-for-42 (.143) with 11 strikeouts collectively against him. Last season, Severino defeated the Nationals twice with the Mets. He posted a 1.88 ERA in 14 and 1/3 innings, and that includes eight innings of one-run ball at Nationals Park.
Eight innings tonight would easily clear this line, but we only need him to go 5 and 2/3 innings tonight. That is typically what he does on the road, as he has pitched 59 and 1/3 innings, nearly averaging six innings in his road starts. He has cleared this number in six of 10 road starts, tossing six innings in all six starts.
Blue Jays vs Rockies Player Props: Loperfido in a Good Spot
Last night, the Blue Jays banged out 25 hits en route to a 15-1 thrashing of the Rockies. Bo Bichette led the way with two home runs and six RBI, but eight of their nine starters had two hits or more. One of them was Joey Loperfido, who went 3-for-6 with two runs scored and an RBI.
In 23 games this season, Loperfido is hitting .386 with three home runs and 10 RBI. In nine of those games, he has recorded two hits and is +190 on DraftKings to do so today. The Rockies are starting Anthony Molina tonight, likely as an opener. He has an ERA over seven this year, and the Rockies bullpen has the second-worst ERA in the MLB.
That means Loperfido should be in a good spot once again if he gets at least four at-bats. Loperfido has recorded at least two total bases in each of his last five games when recording four at-bats, including two hits in four of those games. He is also hitting over .420 both on the road and in night games. Add those factors to the fact that he is playing at Coors Field tonight, and he likely gets two total bases again tonight.
