Wednesday MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Bets for Sandy Alcantara, German Marquez (June 29)
Stephen Maturen/Getty Images. Pictured: German Marquez.
- With 15 games on the slate, there are plenty of MLB player props available to bet Wednesday.
- We've found our two favorite in the evening slate: strikeout totals for Sandy Alcantara and German Marquez.
- Check out Tanner McGrath's breakdowns and picks for both pitchers below.
There’s plenty of MLB action today, with games ranging from noon to 10 p.m. ET. I’m here with two evening plus-EV MLB player props to add to your card.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
|Marlins @ Cardinals|
|First Pitch||7:45 p.m. ET|
All Sandy Alcantara does is eat up innings. He’s thrown an MLB-leading 106 1/3 this year, doing so over just 15 starts — meaning he averages just over seven innings per start.
Given the context surrounding starting pitchers in 2022, that’s perhaps the most staggering statistic in the league right now.
He’s struggled a bit in his most recent starts, but he still is producing quality innings. The last time he failed to go seven in a start was May 6, meaning he’s gone nine straight starts with seven or more innings pitched.
His ERA over those nine starts is a staggering 1.40. Because he pitches so many innings and produces so many outs, he manages to find strikeout opportunities. Sandy has cashed over 5.5 Ks in seven of those nine starts.
People are often wary of Alcantara’s strikeout totals because he doesn’t have gaudy strikeout numbers. He strikes out only eight batters per nine innings with a league-average CSW rate (27.9%).
But in four starts against the Cardinals dating back to the beginning of 2020, Alcantara’s posted stat lines of:
- 6/10/2020: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
- 4/6/2021: 6 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
- 6/16/2021: 8.1 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
- 4/20/2022: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
That’s 28 1/3 innings of four-run baseball with just over nine K/9. I’m confident in his ability to post innings and collect strikeouts today.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Sandy for 6.0 Ks on Wednesday, giving us plenty of value to bet the low-juice 5.5 K number.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-105)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
German Marquez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-160)
|Dodgers @ Rockies|
|First Pitch||8:40 p.m. ET|
The Dodgers are on the verge of getting swept by the Rockies and have to face Colorado’s ace on the road.
But Marquez hasn’t pitched like an ace this season. His 5.58 ERA and 4.86 FIP represent the worst season he’s had since his rookie year with the team in 2016.
The Rockies are a surprising 8-6 in his starts, but that doesn’t mean Marquez has been solid. But he’s still averaging 5 2/3 innings per start.
And although his K/9 is only 7.59, Marquez has cashed over 3.5 Ks in 10 of his 14 starts this season and in eight of his last 10.
Because of his lackluster performance, his strikeout prop has dropped below 4.5, which it rarely does. I think that makes him slightly undervalued and gives us a chance to cash in on a very low strikeout line.
The Dodgers definitely don’t scare me. They’ve posted the ninth-highest strikeout rate against RHPs over the last month (23.2%) with just the 12th-highest wRC+ (106).
Marquez also struck out five Dodgers over just 74 pitches in his debut start this season. His 31% CSW rate in that game was the second-highest of his season so far.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Marquez for a whopping 5.4 Ks tonight, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections put him around 4.7.
This is a no-brainer play.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-160)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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