Wednesday MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Bets for Max Scherzer & Paul Goldschmidt (August 17)
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Paul Goldschmidt #46 of the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Friday's MLB slate is loaded with 15 games, which means there’s plenty of value across the board.
- Our baseball analyst, Tanner McGrath, is focusing on two star players for his favorite prop bets tonight.
- Read on for his in-depth analysis and bets for Mets' ace Max Scherzer and Cardinals' hitter Paul Goldschmidt.
It’s not often you can find value on a perennial Cy Young and a perennial MVP candidate on the same day in the player props market. But I see value in two of those players today.
Read on for my favorite player props for Wednesday’s slate — including one All-Star pitcher and one All-Star hitter.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-110)
|Mets vs. Braves||Mets -150|
|First Pitch||7:20 p.m. ET|
Max Scherzer owns the Braves. Here’s what he’s done in his last five contests against Atlanta:
- 9/13/2020: 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 10 K
- 4/6/2021: 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 9 K
- 9/1/2021: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
- 7/11/2022: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
- 8/6/2022: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K
If you do the math, that’s about 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings against Atlanta over the past three seasons. He’s managed a CSW rate of at least 34% in every one of those starts.
Those are staggering numbers.
Scherzer has still been his otherworldly self against other teams, as well. He’s cashed over 7.5 strikeouts in five of his last eight starts. He’s kept his ERA under 2.00 while keeping his K/9 over 11. And he’s accumulated 3.5 fWAR over 102 2/3 innings this season.
It seems very likely he hits this line against Atlanta again today. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Scherzer for a whopping 8.4 strikeouts in this primetime matchup, giving us a solid 7.2% edge over the line BetMGM is offering.
Pick: Over 7.5 Ks (-110)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
|Rockies vs. Cardinals||Cardinals -205|
|First Pitch||7:45 p.m. ET|
Paul Goldschmidt is unrelenting, unstoppable, and inevitable. His OPS dropped below 1.000 for the first time this season on July 15, and he’s slashed .324/.402/.770 for a 1.173 OPS since that mark.
Not only is he a pitcher’s worst nightmare, but he pairs it with gold-glove level defense. His defensive metrics are inferior this season, but they’ve started to come up recently again.
Beginning to think Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt might be pretty good on defense.
TV: Bally Sports Midwest
Stream: https://t.co/6HlfelvwdB#STLCards pic.twitter.com/Vx6KwoPxBR
— Bally Sports Midwest (@BallySportsMW) August 17, 2022
Today, Goldschmidt will face off with German Marquez, the Rockies pitcher whose metrics have taken a hit this season. His ERA and xERA have now risen in three consecutive seasons, and he no longer boasts the solid home-road splits that he did in the past. It seems that teams were wise to avoid him at the trade deadline.
In 43 lifetime PAs against Marquez, Goldschmidt is 15-for-37 with seven extra-base hits. Goldschmidt has picked up a 92mph avg. exit velocity and an 11.6-degree avg. launch angle on batted balls, adding up to an xSLG north of .750.
Expect Goldschmidt to take advantage of Marquez again today, especially considering how hot he’s been in the month of August — Goldy has gotten on base all 13 games he’s played this month.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+105)
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