Yankees vs Astros Pick Friday | MLB Odds, Predictions Today (March 29)

Here's everything you need to know about Yankees vs Astros on Friday, March 29 — including odds and a prediction.

You could make a convincing argument that the best rivalry in the American League is the Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees. The two have met in the ALCS three times since 2018 though the Astros have won all three. The Yankees always have a chip on their shoulders against the Astros, and you can feel the tension between the teams.

The New York Yankees acquired Juan Soto over the offseason, though he's purely a rental unless a long-term extension is reached, which feels unlikely as super agent Scott Boras rarely goes for extensions.

Soto headlines a star-studded lineup featuring former MVP's Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. If Judge is healthy, he'll put together another MVP-caliber season. The key is Stanton, who posted a career-worst .191 batting average and 89 wRC+ last season. Is Stanton a shell of his former self? Or was an anomaly last year an anomaly? We'll have to see.

Since coming to New York, Stanton has struggled against right-handed pitching, particularly Cristian Javier, who has struck him out five times in three games.

The upper quadrant of the Yankees lineup will reach base at a decent clip, but can the bottom of the order? That answer is more complicated. In the first four innings on Opening Day, Jose Trevino and Alex Verdugo hit into double plays with the bases loaded. Expect rookie catcher Austin Wells to start behind the plate instead of Trevino against the righty starter as the Yankees need production from the bottom third or the order to have a functional offense.

The Yankees inked Carlos Rodon to a six-year, $168 million dollar contract last summer and one season in, it's looking like one of the worst contracts in MLB.

The 31-year-old southpaw posted a 6.85 ERA in just 64 1/3 innings due to a back injury that limited him to just 14 games.

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The Houston Astros appeared in their seventh consecutive ALCS last season.

Each of the Astros top six hitters last year posted an OPS above .800 — Yordan Alvarez (.990), Jose Altuve (.915), Kyle Tucker (.886), Yanier Diaz (.846), Chas McCormack (.842) and Alex Bregman (.804.) Factor in potential bounce-back seasons from Jeremy Peña and Jose Abreu, and pitchers are in four a tough task. Even the nine-hole hitter, Jake Meyers, hit the team's first home run of the season in the second-inning on Opening Day.

When it comes to pitching, Javier has owned the Yankees. In five career appearances, he's allowed just five runs and has racked up 33 strikeouts. The Dominican posted a 4.56 ERA and a 4.58 FIP in his second full season in the Astros rotation. We'll have to see if Javier's low-velocity fastball, which strangely has one of the highest whiff rates in baseball, is again able to generate a healthy amount of swing and miss.

You can grab the Astros moneyline at -135 right now.

Facing a pitcher with a ton of uncertainty and a shaky Yankees bullpen leads to a fair amount of value in backing the Astros to win. Plus, Houston brought in flame-throwing lefty Josh Hader to shut the door in the ninth inning. If Javier gets a quality start (six innings, three or fewer runs), the Astros have a dominant duo in the final two innings in Ryan Pressly and Hader.

Pick: Astros Moneyline

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