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MLB Odds & Picks for Yankees vs. Mariners: Why to Buy Low on New York

MLB Odds & Picks for Yankees vs. Mariners: Why to Buy Low on New York article feature image
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Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Jameson Taillon

  • The Mariners host the Yankees in a pick 'em on Monday night in Seattle.
  • The Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the mound while the Yankees will counter with Jameson Taillon.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Yankees vs. Mariners Odds

Yankees Odds -110
Mariners Odds -110
Over/Under 7.5 (-121 / +100)
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Neither the Yankees nor the Mariners have played their best baseball over the last week or so, and both will look to establish some much-needed form in Seattle this week. After the Mariners went into Yankee Stadium and stole two of three, can the Yankees return the favor here on the road with a win in the first game of this series? Let’s dive into it.

Can Taillon and the Yankees Pitchers Step Up?

Talk of the Yankees breaking the single-season record for wins has quieted down. New York has now lost five in a row and fallen into what is, without a doubt, its biggest slide of the season. After taking the first game of the month at home against the Mariners, the Yankees have yet to win again after most recently getting swept in St. Louis.

While the team ranks sixth in wRC+ over the last two weeks and the offense has fluctuated in the last five games, pitching has not been a strength. The Yankees’ bullpen owns a 4.50 ERA over the last week, the 11th-worst mark in the bigs, and the starting rotation has let them down as well.

Jameson Taillon will take aim at turning the ship around. He pitched brilliantly in an upset win over Domingo German on July 28th, and he followed it up by surrendering six runs against the Mariners at Yankee Stadium last week on two home runs and four walks.

The walks used to be a rare occurrence for Taillon, who owns one of the best Walk Rates in the big leagues. But in his last three starts, he’s issued seven free passes in 13 1/3 innings.


Gilbert Looks to Bounce Back Against the Yankees

While the Mariners did pull off two impressive wins in New York last week, that has been the highlight of their second half thus far. Prior to that, they lost three of four to Houston, and immediately after that, they had a disappointing split of a four-game set with the Angels.

Speaking of bullpens, the Mariners’ ranks 11th-worst in the last two weeks, and their starters haven’t been much better with a 20th-ranked 4.48 ERA during the span. It’s been the offense which has driven the ship to this point; Seattle owns a 106 wRC+ in the last two weeks, and that’s come in spite of a poor .152 ISO and high 22.6% Strikeout Rate.

Logan Gilbert, to this point, hasn’t really lived up to his pedigree. Monday’s starter owns a career 3.85 ERA, which is certainly not bad for a young starter. But after posting a 4.09 xERA in his rookie season, the righty has posted a 4.28 xERA this year.

On top of that, his strikeouts are down from 25.4% to 22.7%, and his Hard-Hit Rate has risen to 47.4%, which ranks in the bottom three percent of the league. He was roughed up by the Yankees in his last outing, too, giving up six runs on seven hits — including three homers.

Yankees-Mariners Pick

It’s really hard for me to get behind Gilbert, particularly given his mediocre peripherals, and it’s even harder to get behind him given his recent clunker against the Yankees and Seattle’s lack of power and a strong bullpen.

While the Yankees aren’t exactly playing like World Series contenders right now, Taillon has a large body of work to look at this year, which points to him being the better of the two starters. On top of that, while the Yankees’ bullpen hasn’t been all that good, it’s been better in the last week of play.

I’m going to cautiously back the Yankees to snap out of their funk here in a buy low spot at -110 on PointsBet.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-110)

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