Yankees vs Rangers Expert Picks and Predictions Today | Wednesday MLB Betting Preview (October 5)

Yankees vs Rangers Expert Picks and Predictions Today | Wednesday MLB Betting Preview (October 5) article feature image

Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Oswaldo Cabrera (95) of the New York Yankees.

  • The Yankees close out the season in Arlington against the Texas Rangers on the heels of Aaron Judge's record night.
  • While lineups on both sides may be in flux, there is still value on the total, according to MLB analyst Doug Ziefel.
  • He breaks down the matchup and his betting pick below.

Yankees vs. Rangers Odds

Yankees Odds-114
Rangers Odds-104
Over/Under7.5 (-113/-108)
Time4:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Well, we made it. Game 162. Unfortunately, this is one of the more lackluster season finales as the playoff bracket is already locked into place, but that does not mean there isn't value on the board on the last day of the season. There happens a good value for this particular matchup between the New YorkYankees and the TexasRangers.

In yesterday's matchup, we saw history as Aaron Judge passed former Yankees right fielder Roger Maris to become the single-season home run record holder for the American League. And while seeing history is nice, the moment is now exactly that, history.

For today's matchup, we have two starters, Domingo German and Glen Otto, who each have much worse numbers than they appear on the surface. So how does that impact our handicap? Let's dive in to find out.

Yankees Can Hit Without Their Stars

With Judge getting the home run monkey off his back yesterday, the Yankees could give him and a few other regulars the day off, but that does not mean they don't have the guys to put up runs this afternoon. Over the last week, the Yankees are the fifth-best team in baseball in terms of wRC+ despite hitting just .239.

Regardless of who is in the lineup, they will have a pretty good matchup as Glen Otto is well overdue to get hit around. Otto managed to escape some of his past outings without any crooked numbers being put up. However, he still had a 4.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over that span.

While we may not have the time for the regression to impact Otto fully, we may see some of it today. His FIP is 5.23, and his xERA is 5.07. Not only are those two numbers that indicate regression, but this Yankees lineup is a bad matchup in particular for Otto.

Otto has relied heavily on his fastball this season, throwing it 49 percent of the time. Well, the Yankees happen to be one of the best teams in the majors at turning around fastballs, as they have 11 guys with positive run values off four-seamers. Hopefully, we get most of the regulars so they can do damage off Otto.

Rangers Have Gone Cold to Close the Season

While the Yankees lineup has remained potent over the last week, the same can not be said for the Rangers' bats. Over the previous seven days, Texas has the second lowest wRC+. The primary source of that is consistently making poor contact. The Rangers also hold the lowest BABIP in the majors over the last week. However, they will have one last opportunity to turn it around against Domingo German.

On the surface, German has been solid for the Yankees at the back end of the rotation. However, they should be wary of him entering the postseason as his underlying metrics tell a very different story. German enters this outing ranked in the bottom 30 percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Those two metrics and his inability to generate swings and misses point to some sizable regression in this outing. His 3.31 ERA is far from accurate and developed from tremendous luck. German's FIP is nearly a full run higher at 4.27, and his xERA is not much better at 3.91.

Even though the Ranges have struggled of late, they have more than a few very dangerous bats in their lineup and should be able to make German pay.

Yankees-Rangers Pick

Despite the Yankees lineup being in question, they should still have a few regulars going this afternoon. They should turn around plenty of Otto's fastballs and generate runs early.

However, they won't be alone as Domingo German is well overdue to hit the showers early, and the top of the Rangers order can get to him in a hurry, especially if the roof is open.

I'm expecting some fireworks here on the season's final day. So take the over and be sure to shop for the best price.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)

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