Yankees vs Reds Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Expert Picks for Sunday, May 21

Yankees vs Reds Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Expert Picks for Sunday, May 21 article feature image

Pictured: Hunter Greene. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

  • The Reds host the Yankees in the first game of MLB's Sunday slate.
  • New York won the first two games in this series, but Hunter Greene gets the ball for Cincinnati Sunday and will be looking for a different result.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and offers up his Yankees vs. Reds best bet below.

Yankees vs. Reds Odds

Sunday, May 21
11:35 a.m. ET
Yankees Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-118 / -104
Reds Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-118 / -104
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

The NL Central's Cincinnati Reds host the AL East's New York Yankees on Sunday morning in the third and final game of this interleague series.

After dropping each of the first two games, Cincinnati will be looking to rebound.

Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Yankees vs. Reds betting pick.

New York Yankees

The main news surrounding the New York Yankees in this contest is the return of right hander Luis Severino, who is slated to make his first start of the campaign. Since it remains to be seen how deep New York allows to him to go, we are going to avoid him and instead focus on fading the Yankees' lineup.

While Aaron Judge and company are an intimidating presence at the dish and no strangers to the long ball, this group is fade worthy in the strikeout department. This fact remains extra prevalent in this contest as right-hander Hunter Greene is projected to get the nod for the Cincinnati Reds.

In 2022, New York ranked in the bottom half of the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching. While those numbers have marginally improved this season, Sunday's lineup suggests the punch-out could be a problem.

Looking at Sunday's projected lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 26% this year. There are a lot of "swing for the fences" hitters in this lineup, and with that comes a lot of potential strikeouts.

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Cincinnati Reds

Greene will take the mound for Cincinnati in this contest. It has been a difficult campaign for the former number two overall pick as he's 0-3 with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP through nine starts.

However, Greene's one strength is generating swings and misses. He only has three pitches in his arsenal, but Greene fires a 4-seam fastball that flirts with 100 mph to set up a devastating slider and changeup, two pitches with a Whiff% north of 36%.

This year, he ranks in the 71st percentile or higher in Chase Rate, K% and Whiff%. In 2022, his debut season, Greene posted a dominating 30.9 K%, which put him in the 91st percentile.

He has tallied at least seven strikeouts in three of his past four starts, a trend likely to continue against the Yankees.

Yankees vs. Reds Betting Pick

Another advantage that Greene boasts over this New York lineup is that the Yankees have never faced him. Greene doesn't throw the most deceptive stuff, but it may still take a few rotations through the batting order for the Yankees to adapt.

At the time of this writing, Greene's strikeout prop hasn't been released. However, it is almost always either 5.5 or 6.5, and I would lay up to -130 at 6.5. I would not take this number at seven.

Pick: Hunter Greene Over Strikeouts

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